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Daily Base Metals Report

US Data Shows Resilience Despite Tariffs

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Strong US data lifted the dollar and supported equities.
  • Base metals pared back their losses despite a stronger dollar, suggesting the market’s need to stabilise. 
  • Gold edged lower; silver held firm; oil prices rose slightly.

Macro

US equities opened higher on Thursday, with major indices consolidating near record highs. June retail sales data came in stronger than expected, suggesting that consumer demand remains resilient despite the tariffs. The figures offer some reassurance that US households continue to absorb price pressures without a strong pullback in spending. Labour market data also reinforced the strength of domestic demand, with initial jobless claims falling to 221,000 last week, the lowest level in three months. The dollar extended its gains, with the dollar index rising to 98.7, while US Treasury yields eased slightly, with the 10-year yield slipping to 4.43%.

In Japan, the trade surplus narrowed sharply in June, down 30.8%YoY to ¥153.1 billion, as automobile and machinery exports to the US declined under the weight of elevated tariffs.

In the UK, the unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in the March to May period, the highest level in four years, while wage growth continued to slow. Average pay excluding bonuses rose 5% in May, marking the weakest pace since June 2022. The data added to concerns about a cooling labour market, further complicating the Bank of England’s policy outlook.

Base Metals

Base metals rebounded slightly today, recovering some of the losses from yesterday despite a stronger dollar. This suggests that the markets are easing their tendency to lower prices and are attempting to stabilise. Copper remained steady above the $9,600/t mark, settling at $9,666.50/t, while aluminium increased to $2,578/t. The downward momentum of lead weakened as its prices approached the support level of $1,970/t, hovering just above it at $1,973/t. Zinc saw a significant rise, climbing to $2,737/t.       

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold edged modestly lower to $3,333/oz, holding within its recent range amid limited directional drivers. Silver continued to hover just below the key $38.00/oz threshold, trading at $37.97 at the time of writing, with price action suggesting fragile support. Oil prices ticked slightly higher, with WTI at $66.90/bbl and Brent at $68.80/bbl.

All price data is from 17.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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