Client Portal
  1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Brace for Tariff Deadline

Read disclaimer

Back to reports

Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US data firm, but dollar and yields eased.
  • Base metals continued to rise following Friday’s rally, but the upside was limited by technical resistance levels.
  • Gold, silver, and oil edged higher.

Macro

US equities opened higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 once again breaking record levels ahead of a packed earnings week featuring results from key corporates including Tesla and Alphabet. On the trade front, the EU is preparing broader retaliatory measures should ongoing negotiations with Washington fail to produce an agreement ahead of the 1 August tariff deadline. While Brussels has signalled a willingness to accept an uneven deal to break the current impasse, several member states, including Germany, are pushing for stronger leverage. Options under discussion include curbs on US services access and restrictions on public procurement bids. The dollar weakened against major peers, with the dollar index slipping below the 98.0 mark, while the 10-year US Treasury yield edged down to 4.36%.

Base Metals

Base metals started the week on the front foot, continuing the momentum from Friday’s rally, which was fuelled by a reduction in selling pressure, a weakening dollar, and positive demand news from China. However, previous highs are proving to be strong resistance levels, limiting major upward movements. A breach above these levels would be crucial to gauge the appetite for further gains.

In the meantime, the markets appear to be positioned for a cautiously bullish narrative leading up to the August 1st tariff deadline. Nonetheless, there remains uncertainty regarding whether Trump will postpone the tariffs, grant exemptions, or keep the tariffs in place, which complicates long-term strategies.

Copper jumped above the $9,800/t mark, reaching $9,860/t. Aluminium also showed strength but struggled to maintain levels above the previous high of $2,650/t, closing just below at $2,646.50/t. Alumina prices continue to rise following the MIIT’s announcement to phase out outdated industrial capacity, interpreted by the markets as the shutdown of less efficient alumina plants. This situation has reignited concerns about potential disruptions in bauxite supply, leading traders to adopt a cautious approach, which has further supported aluminium prices today.

Lead and zinc are facing stronger headwinds, with lead struggling above the $2,020/t resistance level, resulting in a modest correction to $2,014.50/t, while maintaining the support of $2,000/t intact. Zinc tested and rejected prices above $2,850/t resulting in moderate gains day-on-day to $2,838.50/t. Nickel rallied to $15,523/t. 

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold advanced toward the $3,400/oz level, boosted by a softer dollar and a drop in Treasury yields. Silver outpaced gold, climbing to test the $39.00/oz mark, its highest level since 2010, as speculative interest intensified. Oil prices edged lower, with WTI last seen at $67.20/bbl and Brent at $69.10/bbl.

All price data is from 21.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields