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Daily Base Metals Report

Headline CPI Miss Boosts Base Metals as Markets Price In September Cut

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US headline CPI steady at 2.7%, softer than expected, while core inflation accelerates to 3.1%.
  • Weaker dollar and thin liquidity lift LME complex, with copper and aluminium leading gains.
  • Gold pressured by higher yields.

Macro:
US equities opened higher on Tuesday following the release of July inflation data. Headline CPI was unchanged from the prior month at 2.7% YoY, softer than expected, with monthly prices up 0.2%. The unchanged headline masked a firmer rise in core CPI excluding food and energy which accelerated to 3.1% from 2.9% in June, signalling that broader price pressures are building in less volatile categories. The dollar weakened after the release with the DXY slipping below 98.3 as markets lifted the probability of a September rate cut to over 96%. In the UK, labour market figures showed wage growth holding firm with average weekly earnings growing at 5%, sustaining pressure on the Bank of England to keep policy tight despite signs of slowing hiring.

Base Metals
A weaker dollar and thin summer liquidity lifted the LME complex. Copper climbed above $9,840/t, aluminium rose to $2,626/t, and lead climbed above $2,015/t. Zinc advanced to $2,850/t, tin edged higher to $33,850/t, while nickel slipped to $15,320/t. Flows dominated in subdued participation conditions.

Precious Metals and Oil
Gold eased to $3,334/oz. With September Fed rate cut already priced in, bullion found little additional support from the data. Without a shift in the Fed’s tone toward a more explicitly dovish stance on the path of cuts, gold may struggle to regain upward momentum. Silver climbed towards $38.0/oz, making up some of Monday’s losses. Oil prices remained confined to tight ranges, with WTI last at $63.5/bbl and Brent at $66.4/bbl.

All price data is from 12.08.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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