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Daily Base Metals Report

Fed Cut Optimism Wanes

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Markets digest fading Fed easing hopes.
  • Base metals continue to give up previous gains, following a mean-reversion cycle. 
  • Gold and silver slip.

Macro

US equities opened mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow approaching its all-time highs while the Nasdaq surrendered recent weekly gains. Investor attention has shifted to Jackson Hole later this week, where remarks from Fed Chair Powell could clarify the path for monetary policy. Although a September rate cut remains widely expected, dovish optimism has waned over the past week. The dollar index weakened slightly, staying under 98.2, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased modestly, hovering just above 4.30%.

Base Metals

Base metals continued to weaken today, following a sideways mean-reversion cycle. This indicates that we may experience further short-term weakness before a possible recovery to the mean, assuming no external factors trigger a breakout from these ranges. In particular, copper has once again tested the $9,700/t support level, with the $9,600/t mark being crucial for a potential bounce back. Aluminium is approaching its key $2,550/t support, holding just above at $2,563.50/t. Lead and zinc edged slightly lower to $1,973.50/t and $2,768.50/t, respectively.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold edged lower to $3,322/oz, dragged by fading expectations of an aggressively dovish Fed pivot. Silver dropped below $37.5/oz, reflecting the metal’s sensitivity to broader market tone. Oil prices held in the middle of recent ranges, with WTI at $62.6/bbl and Brent at $66.0/bbl.

All price data is from 19.08.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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