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Daily Base Metals Report

Soft US Data Triggers Growth Caution

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US trade deficit widened sharply in July, raising growth concerns.
  • Base metals weakened, wiping out gains from previous days, as markets struggled to break sustainably higher. 
  • Gold consolidated near $3,545/oz after record-breaking gains.

Macro

US equities opened higher on Thursday as investors digested a run of labour market and trade data ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls. The ADP report showed private payrolls rising by just 54k in August, well below expectations and sharply down from July’s upwardly revised 106k, reinforcing evidence of cooling labour demand. Official data on Wednesday revealed that job seekers now outnumber vacancies for the first time since the pandemic. Trade data added further concern, with the goods deficit widening 22.1% in July to $103.6b, pointing to a drag on third-quarter growth. Meanwhile, the final services PMI for August was revised down to 54.5, still comfortably in expansionary territory. The dollar index recovered yesterday’s losses to trade above 98.4, while the 10-year yield briefly dipped below 4.2% before settling slightly higher.

Base Metals 

Base metals continued to decline as markets erased previous gains. Copper fell after struggling to stay above $10,000/t, testing the $9,900/t support level and settling just below it at $9,898/t. Aluminium also weakened, losing momentum and breaking below the $2,600/t support level to reach $2,5921.50t. Lead and tin remained stable at $1,985.50/t and $34,556/t, respectively. Meanwhile, zinc edged lower to $2,843.50/t.

Precious Metals and Oil

After several days of record-breaking gains, gold paused, consolidating near $3,545/oz, while silver eased from above $41/oz to trade around $40.65/oz. Oil prices softened further, with WTI testing $63/bbl and Brent edging down towards $67/bbl.

All price data is from 04.09.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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