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Daily Base Metals Report

Weak Payrolls Reinforce Fed Cut Conviction

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US payrolls stall, jobless rate climbs.
  • Despite sharp dollar moves, the upside in base metals was moderate today. 
  • Gold breaks new records

Macro

US equities opened lower on Friday after the latest labour market report signalled a sharper slowdown in job creation. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22k in August, well short of expectations and down from an upwardly revised 79k in July, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, its highest level in nearly four years. The increase partly reflected more people entering the labour force, but the data confirmed that labour market conditions are weakening. With growth momentum fading, markets see a September rate cut from the Fed as all but certain. The 10-year yield fell below 4.1% and the dollar eased to 97.6 against major peers.

Base Metals 

Base metals experienced a slight rebound on Friday as market appetite declined, keeping their prices within recent ranges. Although the dollar experienced a prolonged downturn, its impact on base metal prices was not proportional. This indicates that the market lacks the conviction needed to break significantly out of the current price ranges. Copper held steady above the $9,900/t mark for most of the day, closing just below it at $9,897.50/t, as aluminium rejected prices below $2,600/t to come back to $2,600.50/t. Lead held its nerve at $1,985/t. Zinc, on the other hand, is seen to be defending the recent highs, coming back above $2,850/t to $2,861/t. 

Precious Metals and Oil

Falling equities and Treasury yields underpinned demand for gold, which surged to fresh record highs, approaching $3,600/oz. Silver also held firm, trading close to $40.9/oz after struggling to maintain the $41 level. Oil remained under pressure, with WTI slipping to $61.8/bbl and Brent to $65.3/bbl.

All price data is from 05.09.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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