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Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Hold Fed Cut View Despite CPI

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Fed cut expectations pushed 10yr yield down to April levels.
  • Aluminium and copper jumped higher, reaching March 2025 highs. 
  • Gold found support above $3,600/oz.

Macro

US equities began Thursday’s session on a firmer footing following the latest consumer price data. Headline inflation rose by 2.9% YoY in August, marking the steepest annual increase since January and accelerating from July’s 2.7% pace. The uptick was driven largely by elevated housing and food costs. Nevertheless, a higher-than-expected rise in initial jobless claims last week has reinforced expectations that the Fed will proceed with a rate cut at next Wednesday’s meeting. Market pricing now reflects almost 75bps of easing anticipated by year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped beneath the 4% threshold for the first time since April, while the dollar weakened modestly against major peers, with the dollar index easing to 97.5.

From other news, the ECB held interest rates steady as widely anticipated, offering little in the way of forward guidance. Despite growing market speculation that further monetary support may be required, policymakers refrained from signalling any imminent changes, even as inflation projections for next year continue to drift below the ECB’s target.

Base Metals 

Base metals saw significant buying interest today, particularly in aluminium and copper, prompting them to break above robust multi-month resistance levels. Notably, copper, which closed above the $10,000/t mark yesterday, experienced increased speculative interest above this level, leading it to surpass the $10,038/t resistance to hit $10,051.50/t – a March 2025 high. While copper's gains were more structured, aluminium prices surged sharply, breaking multiple resistance levels to reach $2,673.50/t, also a high for the first time since March. The rest of the complex followed suit, albeit with more moderate gains. Lead and zinc edged higher, with the latter testing the $2,900/t mark and closing at this level. Nickel remained rangebound at $15,150/t.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold prices dipped slightly, finding tentative support near $3,620/oz, while silver edged higher, trading around $41.3/oz. Crude benchmarks retreated, with WTI slipping below $63.5/bbl and Brent softening to $66.3/bbl.

All price data is from 11.09.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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