Summary
- US stocks opened higher, buoyed by previous highs, as markets engaged in dip buying.
- Base metals stalled, though aluminium continued to reach new highs.
- Gold decisively broke above the critical $4,000/t threshold, with the markets showing no signs of retreat.
Macro
US stocks opened on the front foot following yesterday’s pause, but gains were capped by previous highs. Rather than confirming a period of consolidation, this suggests that markets continue to dip in and out of equities, pausing momentum before re-entering on dip-buying. Once again, today’s upside is driven primarily by tech, reinforcing the ongoing AI-led trend. With a quiet economic data calendar and the US government shutdown still in effect, investors will be keeping an eye on comments from Fed speakers today to help shape the macroeconomic narrative for the rest of the week. The US dollar jumped higher, gaining ground from the 98.50 level towards 98.70. The 10-year US Treasury yield edged lower to 4.11%.
Elsewhere, Germany’s industrial production fell by 4.3% MoM in August, marking the worst monthly decline since early 2022. This drop was largely driven by a steep decline in the auto manufacturing sector. This data follows another report indicating that German factory orders fell for a fourth consecutive month, primarily due to uncertainties in the export segment, exacerbated by US tariffs implemented earlier this year. The euro continued to weaken, breaking below the key 100-day moving average towards 1.1616; the support at 1.1600 is now crucial in determining whether the pair will experience a temporary correction or a longer-term trend reversal.
Base Metals
Base metals stalled today, with aluminium the sole outperformer, as the recent rally shows signs of losing momentum. Copper encountered resistance at $10,800/t once again, closing at $10,669/t . Meanwhile, COMEX copper continued to strengthen, widening the arbitrage differential to $726/t. With Chinese market players returning tomorrow, the upcoming price movement will be crucial in determining whether investors will engage in dip buying or opt to sell the high-priced copper. Zinc slightly weakened, remaining above the critical $3,000/t threshold at $3,005/t. Lead hovered around the $2,000/t mark, while tin countered the recent supply-driven rally, falling back to $36,396/t. Aluminium continued to break higher, testing resistance at the $2,750/t, settling just above it at $2,753.50/t.
Precious Metals and Oil
Oil futures strengthened as US inventories fell by 1.8m barrels WoW at a Cushing hub in Oklahoma, prompting WTI and Brent to $62.70/bbl and $66.35/bbl.
Gold once again stole the spotlight, decisively breaking above the $4,000/oz threshold, a level once thought sufficient to temper speculative enthusiasm. At the time of writing, the metal trades at $4,042/oz and shows little sign of retreating from record highs, despite the absence of strong fundamental support for these valuations. Silver followed closely, breaching $49.00/oz and edging toward the psychologically significant $50.00/oz level with greater caution. Elevated ETF exposure continues to inflate positioning in silver, tightening liquidity in an already overstretched market and heightening risks of physical shortages and subsequent price volatility.
All price data is from 08.10.2025 as of 17:30