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Daily Base Metals Report

When Momentum Becomes the Catalyst

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US stocks opened lower as upside fatigue meets with profit-taking. 
  • Base metals rallied as Chinese participants returned, amplifying the recent uptrend. 
  • Gold pauses while silver played catch-up, surpassing the critical $50/oz level. 

Macro

US stocks opened lower today, suggesting a potential pause in the form of profit-taking. While signs of upside fatigue are increasing, there is currently little downside conviction for markets to meaningfully correct course. The dollar continued to climb higher, approaching the 99.50 level as the 10-year US Treasury yield hovered at 4.14%.

As a result, the euro weakened sharply, breaking decisively below the 1.1600 level towards 1.1564; the next support levels stand at the psychological 1.1500 mark, and 1.1405 – a July low. Likewise, the pound weakened to 1.3307. 

Base Metals 

Base metals stole the spotlight today. With the Chinese returning to the market post-holiday, the morning mood was uncertain as to how this additional open interest would translate into price direction. However, in line with precious metals, base metals extended gains with a distinctly risk-on tone across the complex – a move we attribute more to momentum and positioning than to material improvements in fundamentals. Such momentum-led rallies tend to be fragile, and we believe the continuation of this trend depends more on market conviction to break through current resistance levels than on any clear shift in fundamentals.

Copper led the entire complex higher, jumping to test the robust $11,000/t resistance level before rejecting prices above this level and moderating to $10,867.50/t. Aluminium followed suit, testing the key $2,800/t resistance – a fundamental breach above which could set the metal for highs not seen since early 2022. Lead and zinc strengthened but were constrained by recent highs, closing at $2,030/t and $3,010.50/t at the time of writing. Likewise, nickel attempted to breach $15,600/t before softening back to $15,492/t by the end of the day. Tin jumped back to the $37,000/t level.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold retreated back below the $4,000/oz mark, while silver played catch-up, testing the critical $50.00/oz and strengthening towards $51.00/oz – a record high. Investor sentiment appears to be caught in a self-reinforcing optimism loop, rather than being supported by data, driving volatility higher at elevated price levels as markets assess how far the rally can extend. Silver’s volatility around the $50.00/oz mark today underscores the growing uncertainty over the sustainability of further upside moves.

Oil futures held steady with Gaza peace plan in focus, keeping WTI and Brent at $62/bbl and $65.60/bbl, respectively. 

All price data is from 09.10.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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