Summary
- UK jobs data fuels BoE cut bets for December.
- US aluminium prices rally to record highs amid growing concerns over dwindling domestic inventories.
- Precious metals consolidate after Monday’s sharp rebound.
Macro
US equities traded mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones inching higher while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped as investors digested signs of profit-taking in the technology sector. Futures weakened following reports that SoftBank had sold part of its multi-billion-dollar stake in Nvidia, sparking renewed talk of overextension in AI valuations. However, this theme has played out repeatedly over recent months. Brief pullbacks on profit-taking have tended to fade quickly as investors re-enter the trade, and we see this episode following a similar pattern. The structural momentum behind AI spending remains strong, and any short-term weakness is likely to be met with fresh buying rather than a sustained correction.
In Washington, the Senate approved a short-term funding measure late Monday aimed at reopening the government, which now moves to the Republican-controlled House for a final vote expected tomorrow. If passed, the agreement would end the 40-day shutdown and fund federal operations through January, providing a temporary reprieve rather than a full resolution. If passed, the agreement would mark a welcome step toward restoring policy normality after weeks of disruption. In the near term, markets may interpret the resolution as a mild risk-on signal, potentially supporting the dollar and easing safe-haven demand for gold, though any reaction is likely to be limited given that the deal merely delays, rather than resolves, the broader fiscal standoff ahead of year-end.
In the UK, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in September from 4.8%, prompting sterling to weaken as markets raised the probability of a BoE rate cut in December to 86%. The trend reinforces expectations that the UK’s growth slowdown is now filtering through to labour conditions, increasing pressure for early monetary easing.
Base Metals
US aluminium prices have hit record highs, with the Midwest Premium continuing to strengthen amid renewed interest in bringing aluminium into the US as domestic inventories reportedly draw down. Since the 50% tariff was implemented in June, the US premium has been grinding higher to reflect this pickup in demand. Canada remains the dominant supplier, accounting for 70% of all aluminium imports, though inbound volumes have slipped by more than 20% from January to August.
Estimates put US aluminium inventories at 300,000–400,000mt by the end of Q3 2025, covering around a month of primary consumption. This continues to heighten urgency around US aluminium availability, but so far, the impact on the global balance, as reflected on the LME, has been limited. If US tightness persists into the winter or if global stocks begin to flow West, LME prices may start to factor in a tighter 2026 balance.
In the meantime, base metal price action was muted. Aluminium and copper opened higher but erased the gains made during the day, coming back to $2,875/t and $10,823/t, respectively. Likewise, zinc spreads are supporting forward pricing above $3,050/t; lead remained elevated at $2,062/t.
Precious Metals and Oil
Gold traded within a tight range on Tuesday, testing resistance at $4,150/oz and support at $4,100/oz as investors awaited confirmation of the US government’s reopening. Silver also consolidated, holding above $50.5/oz after finding resistance at $51.25/oz. The consolidation suggests a market pause following last week’s sharp rebound, with both metals balancing between weaker dollar support and profit-taking pressures. For now, gold’s resilience near $4,100/oz implies ongoing safe-haven interest, while silver’s higher volatility continues to reflect speculative positioning.
Oil prices extended gains, with WTI climbing to $61.2/bbl and Brent to $65.2/bbl, supported by expectations that OPEC’s monthly report tomorrow and the IEA’s annual outlook will highlight supply constraints into early 2026. The focus now shifts to whether both agencies temper forecasts for demand growth, which could shape the next leg of price direction.
All price data is from 11.11.2025 as of 17:30