Summary
- The US House of Representatives is expected to approve the funding bill later today.
- Base metals jumped higher, with speculative sentiment taking hold of the market.
- Precious metals stay firm, but silver’s momentum and CPI risks test durability.
Macro
US equities opened mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping while the Dow Jones reached fresh record highs. Investors focused on the upcoming House of Representatives vote on a bipartisan funding bill that would reopen the government after a shutdown lasting since 1 October. The measure is expected to pass later today, paving the way for operations to resume until the end of January and reducing near-term fiscal uncertainty. Still, we expect that the full government resolution could take anywhere from 1 to 2 weeks (17th-21st November), assuming no Senators push back on the bill. Given this estimate, US government data will be released in stages, with the delays becoming smaller.
The dollar index initially strengthened after MBA Mortgage Applications rose 0.6% in the week ending 7 November, suggesting tentative stabilisation in housing activity after a prolonged period of weakness. However, it later eased below 99.5 as investors turned cautious ahead of Thursday’s CPI release. Headline inflation is expected to edge higher to 3.1% from 3.0%, driven by stubborn shelter costs and a mild rebound in goods prices. A stronger print would likely revive dollar demand and keep yields anchored near 4%, as markets reassess the timing of Fed rate cuts.
Base Metals
Base metals jumped higher today, which we believe was largely driven by growing speculative participation. This mirrors the moves seen in silver today, suggesting speculative players are once again taking hold of the market. This is evident in firmer COMEX pricing, lending support to LME copper, which jumped higher to $10,942/t by the end of the day.
We see that the $11,000/t mark is forming as a robust resistance. While copper remains in fundamental deficit this year on a refined balance basis, we believe markets would need either a fresh supply disruption or a clear demand catalyst to push prices sustainably higher. In the absence of such drivers, this move appears to be another speculative rally that could quickly unwind as profit-taking sets in.
With aluminium and zinc held back by prevailing fundamental surpluses, lead continued to gain momentum, breaching the critical $2,070/t resistance and rallying to $2,090/t—a March high; $2,100/t now poses a strong resistance. These gains appear well above lead’s fundamental value, especially as any potential supply constraints from Critical Mineral list additions are unlikely to materialise, in our view. As such, we believe that current levels as speculative overshoot, which should fade as policy news is digested, and market fundamentals reassert themselves. Tin also surged higher, benefitting from lower liquidity, to $37,410/t.
Precious Metals and Oil
Precious metals extended gains, with gold testing $4,190/oz and silver rising above $53/oz. The sustained rally in silver has become increasingly self-reinforcing, fuelled by speculative sentiment and renewed ETF inflows rather than fundamental strength. As long as markets anticipate further upside, momentum is likely to keep prices elevated, although volatility risks are increasing.
Oil prices eased steadily, with WTI slipping below $59/bbl and Brent hovering around $63/bbl. The decline followed the latest OPEC outlook, which now projects global supply and demand to be broadly balanced by 2026, marking a shift from earlier deficit forecasts. The revised view underscores the growing contribution of non-OPEC production and may limit price upside in the near term, particularly if demand from Asia continues to weaken.
All price data is from 12.11.2025 as of 17:30