Summary
- The prolonged data gap means markets will continue leaning more heavily on sentiment-driven signals.
- Base metals weakened today, continuing to extend yesterday’s evening losses.
- Gold’s support around $4,050–4,100/oz and silver’s hold above $51/oz underscore a consolidative phase, with both metals likely to stay choppy.
Macro
US equities opened lower but rebounded quickly, reflecting the familiar pattern of brief pullbacks followed by fresh upside. The conclusion of the 40-day government shutdown offered a relief boost yet exposed the broader challenge: key October data, such as CPI and non-farm payrolls, may remain unavailable if agencies cannot finalise them in time, leaving markets with fewer anchors ahead of the December Fed meeting. We maintain our view that the Fed will not cut rates in December. Even if new data emerges supporting a cut, we expect policymakers to respond with more proactive hawkish statements. We expect that rate-cut expectations will continue to be recalibrated rather than driven by surprises. The dollar index recovered from near 99.0 and climbed toward 99.4, even as the 10-year Treasury yield edged higher to around 4.12 %. With the data vacuum likely to persist, we see next week’s flash PMIs taking on outsized importance. In the absence of the traditional macro anchors, markets will lean more heavily on sentiment-driven indicators and high-frequency releases, keeping trading conditions cautious and range-bound into year-end.
Base Metals
Base metals weakened on Friday, extending the losses that began after yesterday’s close. However, these declines appear to be driven more by profit-taking than a shift in underlying trends, so the complex remains mostly within established ranges. With markets heavily biased for extended longs, particularly from the speculative side, prices are fluctuating between bouts of dip-buying and profit-taking. Copper and aluminium both remained within this week’s ranges, finishing just above the $10,850/t and $2,800/t support levels, respectively. While Chinese data continues to signal deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, with property investment declines fuelling bearish sentiment, base metals appear largely indifferent to Chinese macro data, with sentiment remaining the key driver.
Zinc also dropped lower, retesting the $3,000/t support level and holding above it at $3,025/t. However, the front end tightened further into backwardation, with the cash-to-3-month spread jumping to $180/t. As tightness is expected to ease from January onward, we expect these spreads to unwind, bringing the curve back into a more typical, narrow backwardation structure. At the start of 2026, we expect speculative sentiment to fade, leading to more noticeable softness in the zinc market. Lead continued to slowly unwind its recent rally, trading at $2,070/t at the time of writing, which still appears overextended.
Precious Metals and Oil
Gold declined on Friday, slipping towards $4,075/oz as the brief lift from a softer dollar faded and the end of the US government shutdown reduced near-term safe-haven demand. The metal continues to show resilience around the $4,050–4,100/oz area, but with uncertainty over missing October CPI and labour data, we expect price action to remain choppy rather than directional in the days ahead.
Silver also pulled back sharply but managed to hold above $51/oz, reinforcing our view that the market has entered a consolidation phase after its recent speculative surge. Momentum indicators continue to cool, suggesting that further upside will be harder to sustain without a fresh catalyst.
Oil prices edged modestly higher, with WTI just above $60/bbl and Brent near $64.4/bbl, as markets absorbed OPEC’s latest projection of a broadly balanced supply–demand outlook for 2026. We see crude remaining range-bound unless a clear supply shock emerges or Asian demand shows signs of reacceleration.
All price data is from 10.11.2025 as of 17:30