Summary
- Tech-sector resilience will remain a key driver of US equity sentiment, but sustainability questions are likely to re-emerge as 2026 guidance becomes clearer.
- Base metals were cautious this morning, supported by China’s support for the property sector.
- Precious metals may face renewed pressure if tomorrow’s PMIs reinforce dollar strength.
Macro
US equities opened higher on Thursday, recovering most of their recent losses after Nvidia delivered stronger-than-expected results on Wednesday. Nvidia delivered its first pickup in quarterly revenue growth in nearly two years, providing a boost to a tech sector that had been unsettled by recent talk of an overheating AI trade. While these worries will likely quieten in the coming weeks, we expect them to resurface, as the pace of ascent remains heavily investment-driven and underlying infrastructure capacity continues to lag rapid demand growth.
The September US labour data showed solid hiring momentum, with Nonfarm Payrolls rising by 119,000 - the strongest reading in five months. An accompanying rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% tempered the market reaction, contributing to a brief dip in the dollar before it quickly regained ground and held above the 100.2 level. The 10-year Treasury yield continued to trade within its recent range, with firm support around 4.1% and resistance near 4.15%. With a December Fed cut now fully priced out, the market’s focus will shift towards early-2026 policy expectations and how incoming data shape the trajectory of the labour market and services inflation. Tomorrow’s preliminary S&P November PMI releases are likely to be a key driver of near-term market moves.
Base Metals
Base metals opened strongly this morning, buoyed by mean-reversion strategies and encouraging news from China. The government is reportedly considering measures to support the property sector, such as mortgage subsidies and tax rebates. Zinc and aluminium, both widely used in construction, were the biggest beneficiaries, strengthening to $3,014/t and $2,816/t, respectively.
However, markets remain sceptical that these measures will lead to any meaningful improvement in demand, particularly in the short term, and optimism faded quickly. As a result, copper was less responsive to these developments. Copper prices continue to trade in a narrow range, with market hesitancy limiting price action, hovering just below $10,800/t, at $10,735/t.
Precious Metals and Oil
Precious metals traded steadily, with gold around $4,080/oz and silver near $51.0/oz. Stable yields and improved equity sentiment are keeping the complex contained for now, though directional conviction remains limited until clearer signals emerge from the data.
Oil prices edged higher, with WTI back above $60.0/bbl and Brent around $64.0/bbl, supported by a sharper-than-expected draw in US crude stocks and improved risk appetite in equity markets. However, upside momentum is constrained by a firmer dollar and signs of softening demand, reflected in rising refined-product inventories. Concerns around potential oversupply, especially given the evolving impact of Russia-related sanctions, remain in view and continue to offer an additional layer of support.
All price data is from 20.11.2025 as of 17:30