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Daily Base Metals Report

Fast and Furious: Assets Tumble in Afternoon Trade

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Risk-off sentiment gripped the market in the afternoon session, prompting sharp corrections across equities and commodities as the week drew to a close. 
  • Copper and zinc stood out, erasing most of yesterday’s gains in the space of minutes. 
  • Gold and silver were close behind, selling off in the afternoon sessions.

Macro

US equities ended the week weaker, as tech sector weakness unwound earlier risk-on sentiment following the Fed’s Wednesday decision. The S&P 500 retreated after probing recent highs, while the Nasdaq extended its decline. We believe that price action appears more like consolidation than a definitive trend reversal, keeping optionality open for upside next week. Meanwhile, the US 30-year Treasury yield edged toward 4.85%, reflecting markets’ ongoing recalibration to a more hawkish long-term Fed stance. Current market pricing points to two 25bps cuts in 2026, though we see scope for an additional cut in H2 2026 if labour data deteriorates further. Meanwhile, the dollar held firm at 98.40.

Base Metals

Liquidity-driven volatility continues to set the tone, with price action reflecting increasingly reactive momentum. Markets held on to gains for most of the week, only to be caught off guard by a wave of Friday afternoon selling that swept through the complex. Copper stood out with a rapid $450/t drop in minutes, erasing the previous day's gains entirely. Zinc retraced half of Thursday’s $100/t rally, settling near $3,150/t, while aluminium softened back toward $2,860/t.

As mentioned in yesterday’s comment, outsized moves tend to fade once liquidity normalises. However, with prices stretched relative to historical levels and trading activity typically quieter as the holiday season approaches and the weekend, we believe the risks of outsized moves could remain elevated into year-end.

Precious Metals and Oil

Silver’s three-day rally reversed today, with prices correcting sharply from $64/oz to $61.70/oz in the Friday afternoon session. While today’s move was pronounced, we note that persistent physical tightness in local inventories and ongoing speculative demand could prompt prices higher again next week, despite today’s pullback. Likewise, gold erased earlier gains, dropping back to $4,270/oz after struggling to defend October highs. 

Should strong macro conditions or renewed speculative flows, particularly in 2026, appear, this would create conditions for another sharp upside move, especially in silver, where physical tightness exacerbates liquidity risk.

All price data is from 12.12.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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