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Daily Base Metals Report

Tariff Talk, Safe-Haven Walk

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Trade politics kept markets headline-sensitive without forcing direction.
  • Copper spec length trimmed while commercial flow continued to support structure.
  • Gold held momentum as silver stayed two-way. 

Macro

With Davos entering its second day, sentiment turned risk-off as renewed trade tensions with Europe resurfaced in the headlines. US equities opened sharply lower, erasing most of January’s early gains. 

The dollar softened, with the DXY slipping below 98.5, while Treasury yields pushed higher, with the 10-year briefly testing the 4.30% area. The move in rates was amplified by pressure in Japanese government bonds, adding cross-market spillover into US duration and keeping macro volatility elevated.

Base Metals

Base metals extended their pullback, suggesting that recent highs are unlikely to be retested in the near term. Copper continued to lead the adjustment, briefly teting support near $12,700/t before rebounding toward $12,755/t. COT data indicates that speculative length has been reduced, while commercial participation remains active, providing mechanical support through hedging activity.
 
Nearby copper spreads tightened further into backwardation, implying that additional unwinding may be required before prices can soften more convincingly. The term structure therefore continues to act as a buffer, with commercial flows offering downside support as spec positioning normalises.
 
Aluminium spreads eased back into contango, while the metal slipped below support at $3,110/t to settle near $3,099/t. Lead also breached support at $2,040/t, while nickel and zinc weakened to around $17,630/t and $3,182/t respectively. Tin briefly traded above $52,000/t before surrendering gains into the close, ending near $49,250/t.

Precious Metals 

Precious metals remained in focus, with gold breaking fresh record highs near $4,740/oz. Silver traded in a narrower $94–96/oz band, showing less conviction as participants debated whether to treat it as a momentum allocation alongside gold or as a more reactive expression of industrial-metals sentiment. The hesitation suggests that silver is still searching for a dominant narrative, even as dip-liquidity remains active.
 
Oil prices firmed, with WTI hovering near $60.3/bbl and Brent close to $65.0/bbl as geopolitics kept crude skewed to the upside.

All price data is from 20.01.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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