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Daily Base Metals Report

Oil Retreats on Diplomatic Noise

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Authors
Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Oil eased late in the week, offering limited relief on rates and FX.
  • Base metals remained rangebound as macro uncertainty capped conviction.
  • Precious metals rebounded.

 

Macro

US equities opened firmer as energy prices steadied amid renewed diplomatic noise. Oil traded sideways before slipping into the UK afternoon, with Brent falling back below $110/bbl and WTI below $102/bbl, unwinding part of the recent geopolitical premium. The move followed reports that Iran has submitted a revised proposal for talks via Pakistani intermediaries, raising tentative hopes of de escalation. That said, negotiations remain unresolved and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to operate under tight control, keeping supply risk priced in despite softer headlines

The softer oil tone weighed on rates and the dollar. DXY remained below 98.0 following Thursday’s sharp reversal, while the US 10 year yield edged lower but continues to trade above 4.3%, signalling that inflation risk has eased only modestly.

Base metals

Base metals were rangebound amid lighter volumes. Copper hovered around $13,000/t, lacking conviction after Monday’s upside move was quickly reversed by heavy selling on Tuesday.

Aluminium rebounded back above $3,500/t, a level that continues to mark where Middle East supply disruption appears priced in. The cash to three month spread remains just below $60/t backwardation, pointing to ongoing nearby tightness.

Nickel briefly pushed above $19,600/t before fading back below $19,400/t. Repeated failures to hold higher levels through the week suggest selling interest building into rallies, with hedging limiting upside follow through.

Precious metals and oil

Precious metals strengthened later in the session as oil eased and rates softened. Gold rebounded above $4,650/oz, while silver jumped to test $77/oz before slipping back below $76/oz. The move reflected improved real rate dynamics and a modest pullback in energy driven inflation pressure.

All price data is from 01.05.2026 as of 17:30

 

Disclaimer

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