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Daily Base Metals Report

Geopolitical Risk Continues to Shape Markets

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Hopes for an Iran peace deal led to a sharp drop in oil prices
  • Base metals saw compressed price action; aluminium and copper weakened but remained resilient
  • Precious metals weakened on strong selling pressure and technical factors

Macro

US equities opened on a cautious note today, holding on to record highs as markets focused more on AI-driven trades than geopolitics. Hopes for a deal to end the conflict in Iran pushed oil lower, following reports of an unofficial draft for an interim peace deal between two nations, which led to a sharp correction back to $90/bbl. On the macro front, there have been few updates elsewhere, with no major releases today. The main focus is on tomorrow’s US PCE and GDP figures, expected to show stickier inflation and stable growth.

Base Metals

Aluminium declined alongside oil as markets priced out part of the geopolitical risk premium embedded across conflict-sensitive assets, briefly pushing the metal toward the $3,620/t support level before recovering slightly to around $3,640/t. Copper also continued to trade largely on macro-driven flows, maintaining its correlation with precious metals. The key difference, however, is that the scale of price action has moderated noticeably, with intraday swings becoming increasingly compressed compared with the early stages of the conflict-driven rally.

Still, copper's ability to hold the $13,600/t floor intact suggests the market remains resilient, with limited appetite to press the downside aggressively. To us, this suggests positioning is becoming more balanced rather than outright bearish, helping keep copper elevated.

Nickel fluctuated between $18,800/t and $19,000/t, suggesting these two levels are technically significant in the current market. Zinc and lead were muted, trading at $3,523/t and $2,004/t at the time of writing.

Precious Metals 

Precious metals weakened sharply today, even before hopes of peace talks emerged, with selling pressure intensifying as participants breached key support levels—$4,460/oz for gold and $76/oz for silver. The subsequent oil drop failed to reverse these losses, suggesting markets were technically positioned for weakness. 

Gold tested and rejected prices below $4,400/t—a March low—indicating we could see a mean-reversion strategy back up to $4,500/t in the near term, absent any geopolitical developments. Since silver’s decline did not breach new lows, its technical recovery may be less prominent.

All price data is from 27.05.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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We execute and clear a significant proportion of the market activity on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world's largest non-ferrous metals exchange. We also provide access to the CME’s base metal futures and options contracts on its COMEX exchange, nickel contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and copper contracts on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE).

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We provide access to OTC and exchange-traded futures and options contracts for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, covering all hedging and speculative requirements.

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