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Daily Base Metals Report

Waiting for Warsh

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Markets stayed cautious ahead of Warsh, even with DXY below 99.6, the US 10-year near 4.4% and oil under pressure.
  • Base metals remained fragile, with copper capped below $13,800/t and aluminium still unable to recover.
  • Precious metals held firm overall, but silver again failed to keep hold of the $71/oz area.

Macro

US stocks opened mixed, with the market showing little conviction despite lower oil and softer yields as investors waited for Warsh’s guidance before adding fresh risk. 

The market base case still looks like a hold at 3.50%–3.75%, with the key issue being the tone of the statement and press conference rather than the rate decision itself. We believe that the most likely outcome is cautious and data-dependent, not openly dovish. 

China added a weaker growth signal, with May retail sales down 0.6% YoY, fixed-asset investment down 4.1% YTD, and industrial production up 4.5%, which reinforces the demand weakness story even as supply holds up. 

DXY fell below 99.6, the US 10-year moved lower towards 4.4%, and oil stayed under pressure, with WTI below $77/bbl and Brent around $79.5/bbl. Our base case remains that lower energy should keep easing the inflation pulse into the Fed, even if the market stays cautious on guidance. 

Base Metals

Base metals were mixed and lacked follow-through.

Copper traded in a narrow range and again failed to hold above $13,800/t, which suggests the market is still not ready to build a cleaner upside move. 

Aluminium also remained under pressure after Monday’s plunge, holding a tight $3,350–3,400/t range and failing to recover, while the cash-to-three-month spread at around $25 contango points to a looser nearby structure.

Lead was firmer and broke back above $1,980/t, but zinc softened into the close around $3,565/t. 

Overall, the complex still looks selective and fragile, with copper contained, aluminium struggling and zinc losing momentum after the recent overdone move. 

Precious Metals 

Precious metals consolidated at higher levels, with the market waiting for Warsh’s guidance to decide whether lower oil and softer yields are enough to support a clearer direction. 

Gold hovered around $4,325/oz, while silver tested $71/oz but failed to hold it and slipped back below $70/oz. Gold still looks steadier than silver here, while silver remains the more fragile leg of the complex.

All price data is from 16.06.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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