Summary
- US equities fell as higher oil and yields hit risk appetite, with technology and semiconductors under the most pressure.
- Base metals weakened broadly, with copper losing $14,000/t as the collapse in backwardation reduced nearby support.
- Gold and silver sold off sharply as profit-taking accelerated and yields stayed above 4.7%.
Macro
US stocks opened lower as the rebound in oil and yields pushed investors back into defensive positioning. The pressure was most visible in technology and semiconductors, where higher yields again raised questions around stretched valuations and AI-related spending. DXY hovered below 99.7 and moved around its 50-day average, while the US 10-year yield stayed above 4.7%, keeping the rates environment restrictive despite recent softer US data.
Oil was the main macro driver. Brent moved close to $92/bbl and WTI traded above $85/bbl after the US-Iran ceasefire window expired without a lasting deal. The US has ruled out extending the temporary arrangement, while Iran has signalled a more offensive stance around the Strait of Hormuz. This keeps the energy-risk premium firmly in place and limits how far markets can price out inflation risk.
In the UK, the labour market showed further signs of cooling. Unemployment held at 4.9%, vacancies fell to 707k, and private-sector regular pay growth slowed to 2.8%, the weakest since 2020. This reduces some pressure on the BoE, but with oil higher and inflation risks still present, the market is unlikely to fully remove the risk of another hike.
Base Metals
Base metals weakened across the board, with the move now looking more defensive than earlier in the week.
Copper fell below $14,000/t and traded around $13,985/t, losing the $14,100-14,200/t support area that had held the recent range together. The cash-to-3-month spread has collapsed from extreme levels but remains very tight at around $257 backwardation, suggesting nearby pressure has eased after the roll but has not fully normalised. This reduces some of the squeeze-led support for the outright price, and copper now needs to reclaim $14,100/t quickly to avoid a deeper correction towards the $13,900/t area.
Aluminium fell sharply towards $3,218/t, confirming that last week’s rebound has failed, while zinc dropped towards $3,693/t despite the cash-to-3 month spread still pointing to tight nearby conditions. Tin saw the heaviest selling, falling towards $54,750/t as profit-taking accelerated after the earlier rally, and nickel remained weak around $16,780/t. Lead also softened towards $1,885/t and continues to lack direction.
Overall, the complex looks vulnerable as higher oil and US yields weigh on risk appetite. Copper and zinc spreads still signal tightness, but the collapse in copper backwardation shows that prompt pressure is easing, so outright prices now need stronger macro support to stabilise.
Precious Metals and oil
Precious metals sold off sharply, with gold falling towards $4,360/oz and silver dropping below $64/oz. Gold lost the $4,380/oz area that had been acting as support and the late-session move lower suggests profit-taking has accelerated as US yields stayed above 4.7%.
Silver underperformed, falling more than 3% towards $63.7/oz after failing to hold above $65/oz. The move confirms that positioning had become stretched after last week’s rally, and the loss of $64.5/oz leaves the market more exposed to further liquidation.
We expect dips to remain supported if safe-haven demand returns, but for now stronger upside will need either a clearer fall in yields or renewed evidence that buyers are willing to rebuild exposure after today’s sharp correction.
All price data is from 19.08.2026 as of 17:30