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Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Find Their Footing

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Softer oil and strong Treasury demand lifted equities, although the dollar remained supported by the Fed’s tightening bias.

  • Copper regained $14,500/t on Chilean supply risks and falling inventories, but weak aluminium and nickel signalled uneven Chinese demand.

  • Gold returned above $4,180/oz and silver approached $61/oz, with softer yields drawing buyers back after the week’s sell-off.

Macro

US equities recovered on Friday as oil prices retreated and technology stocks rebounded following Thursday’s sell-off. Hopes of progress in the US–Iran conflict reduced the immediate energy-supply premium, while strong demand at this week’s 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions helped stabilise global bond markets. French OATs also recovered after several sessions of fiscal stress, providing some relief to European risk sentiment.

The DXY traded in a narrow 101.92–102.15 range. The index nevertheless remained close to its weekly high of 102.54, supported by the Fed’s continued tightening bias and the dollar’s yield advantage. The US 10-year yield eased towards 5.25% after trading above 5.30% earlier in the week, although the broader rise in term premium and concerns over inflation, fiscal borrowing and Treasury supply remain unresolved.

The week was defined by conflicting signals. September payrolls confirmed a loss of hiring momentum, but the Fed minutes indicated that most policymakers still expect another rate increase before year-end.

We expect Monday’s trading to remain sensitive to Middle East headlines, with a sustained decline in crude likely to support equities and contain yields. Attention will then turn to Wednesday’s US CPI and the start of third-quarter earnings, which should provide a clearer test of whether the Fed can pause in October and whether corporate profits can continue to offset the pressure from elevated borrowing costs.

Base Metals

Base metals recovered on Friday, but the move was led by the contracts that suffered the heaviest post-holiday selling rather than a uniform improvement across the complex. Copper regained $14,500/t, while zinc climbed towards $3,804/t and tin rebounded to $53,000/t. Aluminium struggled to hold its intraday recovery and finished near $3,053/t, while nickel remained subdued around $15,595/t, showing that confidence in the broader Chinese demand outlook remains uneven.

Copper’s recovery was supported by persistent supply concerns in Chile and a further decline in LME inventories to 233,018 tonnes. The strike at Centinela and potential disruption at Escondida remain supportive, but Friday’s inability to sustain a move above $14,600/t suggests that these risks are largely preventing a deeper correction rather than driving a fresh breakout. Zinc’s stronger close and tin’s partial rebound point to buyers returning after Thursday’s liquidation, although tin remained well below its pre-sell-off level.

We see the uneven close as evidence that the post-Golden Week recovery is still selective. Copper holding above $14,500/t would preserve the constructive tone, while aluminium’s renewed slide towards $3,050/t and nickel’s continued weakness show that stronger Chinese physical activity is still needed to lift the complex more broadly.

Precious Metals 

Gold regained momentum on Friday, breaking back above $4,200/oz before easing towards $4,190/oz, while silver rebounded more sharply towards $60.9/oz. The recovery followed this week’s heavy selling, with softer Treasury yields and a weaker dollar drawing buyers back into both metals.

Gold’s increasingly active trading environment is translating into a potential $5bn revenue windfall for bank precious-metals desks this year. Elevated prices, sharp intraday swings and sustained client flows have turned bullion into one of the most profitable areas of commodities trading, highlighting the strength of participation behind the market.

We see gold’s move back above $4,180/oz as constructive, but a sustained break above $4,200/oz is needed to confirm renewed upside momentum. Silver’s stronger rebound reflects its higher sensitivity to improving risk appetite, with $61/oz now the key level to regain.

All price data is from 09.10.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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