Summary
US equities followed global markets lower as Brent held near $111/bbl, while strong US activity and the sharpest rise in selling prices since August 2022 added to inflation concerns.
Copper recovered above $14,300/t despite higher US stocks, with the $130/t backwardation confirming continued tightness in prompt metal.
Gold tested $4,001/oz, while silver fell towards $54/oz as liquidation continued despite lower yields and a softer dollar.
Macro
US equities opened lower, following losses across Japanese and European markets as elevated oil prices and continued caution around AI-related spending kept risk appetite weak. Brent reached its highest level since April before easing to around $111/bbl, while WTI held above $102/bbl. Renewed Middle East supply concerns and a 3.1m-barrel weekly decline in US commercial crude stocks kept energy prices elevated, raising costs for businesses and reinforcing inflation concerns.
Today’s PMIs remained positive but added to the inflation problem. The US composite PMI eased to 57.6 from 58.4, with services at 57.9 and manufacturing rising to a 53-month high of 56.0. New orders grew at the fastest pace in more than four years, but selling prices recorded their sharpest increase since August 2022 as companies passed on higher costs. The eurozone was weaker, with the composite PMI falling to 51.9 from 53.1 as manufacturing and services missed expectations.
DXY remained below 101.8 and finished the week slightly lower, while the US 10-year yield hovered around 5.0% after giving back its earlier weekly gains. We expect high oil prices and firm US price pressures to complicate the Fed’s decision next week, while keeping equities and metals sensitive to any further escalation in the Middle East.
Base Metals
Base metals ended LME Week higher, with nickel the exception. Nickel broke below $16,000/t and struggled to finish the week above $15,850/t, giving back part of Wednesday’s sharp rebound.
Copper recovered all of Thursday’s losses and closed above $14,300/t. The increase in on-warrant stocks at US LME-approved warehouses initially pushed prices lower, with total LME copper stocks reaching 273,000 tonnes on Thursday, their highest level in a month. The question now is whether that metal remains in the US warehouse system or is cancelled and withdrawn. Copper’s cash-to-three-month backwardation remained around $130/t, showing that the increase in headline stocks has not removed the tightness in immediately available metal.
Aluminium tested $3,040/t before returning to its recent range. The cash-to-three-month spread moved back into backwardation at around $30/t, while the renewed increase in energy prices creates additional risk for this power-intensive market.
Zinc recovered all of Thursday’s decline, reaching $3,760/t before closing closer to $3,750/t. Around 8,000 tonnes leaving Asian warehouses, alongside higher cancelled warrants, helped prices return to the top of the recent range. However, total LME zinc stocks remained around 167,000 tonnes and were still more than 45% higher over the previous 30 days, leaving the market caught between recent warehouse inflows and continued tightness in nearby metal.
Next week’s focus shifts back to the Fed and China. Copper’s backwardation should keep nearby prices supported, but the durability of today’s recovery will depend on whether US warehouse stocks stay on warrant and whether Chinese buyers return at prices above $14,300/t.
Precious Metals
Gold extended its decline, with futures trading around $4,038/oz after briefly testing $4,001/oz. The metal has now fallen from above $4,200/oz at the start of the previous week, as higher oil prices reinforced expectations that US rates will remain restrictive despite the decline in the 10-year yield.
Silver remained considerably weaker, trading around $54–55/oz after opening at $54.69/oz and briefly falling to $54.04/oz, its lowest level since November 2025. Silver was down around 4% over the week and 17.4% over the month, with its industrial exposure adding to the pressure from inflation and rates.
Lower yields and a softer dollar have provided little support to either metal. Gold’s ability to remain above $4,000/oz is now the main level to watch, while silver’s failure to recover $55/oz confirms that liquidation remains more pronounced in the industrially exposed metal.
All price data is from 23.10.2026 as of 17:30