Summary
US equities edged higher, while DXY held near 102.4 and the 10-year yield returned above 5.0% ahead of the Fed.
Copper held near $14,500/t as tight spreads offset a broader pullback across aluminium and lead.
Gold slipped towards $4,050/oz and silver fell towards $53.60/oz as higher yields restored pressure.
Macro
US equities opened higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow advancing while the Nasdaq remained broadly flat as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s decision. DXY held near 102.4 and the US 10-year yield moved back above 5.0%, consistent with expectations that the Fed will leave rates at 3.75–4.00% while keeping a December increase in play. Current market pricing assigns a high probability to a hold today and around an 80% probability of higher rates by year-end.
The UK Budget produced little immediate reaction in gilts, suggesting that the fiscal measures and updated borrowing outlook did not materially alter the market’s assessment of UK debt supply or the Bank of England’s policy path. Attention now shifts fully to the Fed’s statement and press conference. We expect policymakers to acknowledge weaker labour-market momentum while maintaining a firm inflation stance, leaving the dollar supported and keeping yields close to 5.0%.
Base Metals
Base metals were mixed after Tuesday’s broad rally. Copper held close to $14,500/t, trading around $14,476/t after testing $14,511/t. The loss of momentum near the session high showed that buyers were reluctant to extend the move before the Fed, although the elevated cash-to-three-month backwardation continued to indicate tight prompt availability.
Aluminium pulled back from above $3,100/t to around $3,070/t but remained comfortably above $3,000/t. Zinc held near $3,855/t after reaching $3,876/t, preserving most of Tuesday’s gains, while lead retreated towards $1,917/t after briefly testing $1,942/t. Nickel remained subdued near $15,575/t, and tin held above $51,000/t.
The spreads remain the strongest part of the metals picture. Tuesday’s official prices showed cash copper at a $190/t premium to three-month metal and zinc at a $97/t premium, while declining LME stocks across copper, aluminium, zinc and lead added to the tight nearby structure. We expect the Fed decision to determine whether tight prompt supply continues to support outright prices against a firm dollar and elevated financing costs.
Precious metals
Gold gave back part of Tuesday’s rebound, falling from an intraday high of $4,084/oz towards $4,050/oz. The move coincided with DXY holding near 102.4 and the US 10-year yield returning above 5.0%, restoring pressure on non-yielding bullion ahead of the Fed.
Silver weakened more sharply, retreating from $54.60/oz towards $53.60/oz. Its continued underperformance reflects the deeper correction already visible across precious metals and its greater exposure to uncertain industrial sentiment.
Gold remains above the $4,000/oz level that attracted buying earlier this week, but today’s failure to hold above $4,080/oz shows that conviction remains limited before the policy decision. We expect the Fed’s guidance on December to carry more weight than today’s widely anticipated hold, with a continued tightening bias maintaining pressure on both gold and silver.
All price data is from 28.10.2026 as of 17:30
The Fed subsequently held rates at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack favouring a 25bp increase. The statement upgraded economic activity from a “solid” to a “strong” pace, highlighted resilient spending, robust investment and stable labour-market conditions, and reiterated that inflation remains elevated. Chair Kevin Warsh also avoided providing forward guidance, leaving future decisions dependent on incoming data. The split vote and stronger assessment of the economy maintained the Fed’s tightening bias and kept a December increase firmly in play.