Summary
Equities diverged as markets awaited election results, with oil steady and yields below 5%.
Copper recovered above $14,000/t, but defensive options and positioning pointed to growing downside concern.
Gold fell back towards $3,930/oz and silver below $50/oz as rebounds failed to hold.
Macro
US equities opened mixed on Election Day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slightly higher as Nvidia and other semiconductor shares rebounded. The Dow moved lower as Apple fell after weaker margin guidance, while consumer staples and materials also underperformed. DXY edged towards 102.0 and the US 10-year yield remained below 5%, keeping the wider market reaction contained.
There is no meaningful election score at the time of writing. Republicans entered the vote with a 218–214 House majority and a 53–47 Senate majority, making control of both chambers the key issue for fiscal and trade policy. The results remain unofficial until states complete their canvassing and certification processes.
Oil prices were broadly steady, with WTI near $96/bbl and Brent around $104/bbl as diplomatic expectations continued to offset Middle East supply risks. We expect markets to remain cautious until the congressional picture becomes clearer, with the dollar and Treasury yields most sensitive to any result that changes expectations for fiscal spending, tariffs and policy gridlock.
Base Metals
Base metals moved lower across the board. Copper led the decline, falling below $13,900/t before recovering to around $14,050/t. The rebound lost momentum above $14,100/t, leaving the metal more than $300/t below Monday’s close.
The options market has also turned more defensive. Copper remains close to historically elevated levels, but downside protection now trades at a premium to upside exposure across several maturities on both the LME and COMEX. Hedge funds also cut their net bullish COMEX copper position by 7,577 lots to 40,432 in the week ending 27 October, the least bullish position in almost seven months. Together, the moves show that investors are increasingly protecting against a correction even as the physical market remains tight.
Tin recorded the largest fall, dropping below $48,000/t to $47,460/t. Zinc lost its recent momentum and closed near $3,792/t, while aluminium fell back towards $3,040/t after failing to hold above $3,080/t. Nickel declined to $15,350/t and lead slipped below $1,885/t.
Precious Metals
Gold briefly recovered towards $3,970/oz during US trading but failed to hold the move, falling back to around $3,929/oz. Silver followed the same pattern, rising above $50.50/oz before retreating to $49.67/oz, leaving it down almost 2% on the day.
Positioning remains cautious. Managed-money net longs in gold fell to a 20-week low, while silver net longs reached their lowest level in almost three years in the week ending 27 October. Today’s reversals show that buying returned at lower levels, but neither metal attracted enough conviction to sustain the rebound.
All price data is from 03.11.2026 as of 17:30