Summary
Strong jobs and wages pushed DXY towards 102.5 and kept a December Fed hike in play.
Outright prices weakened, but aluminium, copper and tin backwardations continued to signal tight prompt supply.
Gold fell towards $4,055/oz, while silver held near $51.90/oz despite the stronger dollar.
Macro
US equities opened broadly muted after a heavy week for technology shares, with investors reluctant to rebuild exposure despite a much stronger labour-market report. October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, well above the 65,000 forecast and September’s revised 60,000 gain. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4% MoM, confirming that labour demand and wage pressure remain firm.
DXY jumped towards 102.5 as the data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in December. The US 10-year yield remained below 4.9%, however, as demand for Treasuries persisted following this week’s sharp equity sell-off. The split reaction shows that the dollar responded directly to the stronger policy outlook, while longer-dated bonds remained supported by weaker risk appetite.
Oil edged higher, with WTI around $90/bbl and Brent near $97/bbl, but both remained sharply lower over the week as the Middle East risk premium continued to unwind. We expect the stronger payroll and wage figures to keep a December Fed hike in play, supporting the dollar and limiting the scope for a sustained recovery across technology shares and metals.
Base Metals
Base metals ended the week mostly lower. Copper slipped to $13,760/t after failing to regain $13,850/t, while zinc extended its decline to $3,723/t. Aluminium held near $3,055/t and lead eased to $1,883/t. Nickel remained comparatively resilient around $16,295/t, while tin recovered to $46,330/t after testing $45,500/t on Thursday.
The spreads remain more supportive than outright prices. Aluminium’s cash-to-three-month backwardation widened sharply to $77/t, copper remained elevated at $150/t and tin reached $125/t, consistent with tight prompt availability. Zinc’s backwardation narrowed to $23/t, while lead and nickel remained in contango.
Copper stocks continued to build in US warehouses, but the persistent backwardation shows that these inflows have not resolved tightness elsewhere. Tin’s low inventories also explain why its nearby spread remains firm despite the weaker three-month price. Nickel shows the opposite structure: high stocks and a $190/t contango still point to ample supply, even as reports of possible Indonesian production cuts keep the outright price above $16,000/t
Precious Metals
Gold fell to around $4,055/oz after the stronger payrolls print pushed DXY above 102.2 and reinforced expectations of a December Fed hike. Silver held up better near $51.90/oz, recovering from an intraday test of $51.30/oz. The divergence left the gold-silver ratio near 78, with today’s pressure concentrated in gold’s greater sensitivity to the dollar and rate expectations.
All price data is from 06.11.2026 as of 17:30