Summary
The dollar and yields continued to rally on a Fed tightening trade; we view the move as fragile, with a risk of a sharp unwind.
Copper weakened, nearing its 200-day moving average, while aluminium swung sharply with the nearby spread unwind.
Gold and silver are seen testing key support levels, while oil stalled amid no clarity on the Middle East.
Macro
US futures weakened today on the back of an Nvidia selloff, but remained within yesterday’s trading range, suggesting the move is news-driven rather than a reflection of broad AI sentiment. Meanwhile, the Fed tightening trade persists, with markets aggressively pricing a hawkish path despite no significant change in inflationary narrative. This has pushed the dollar index to 103, its highest level since Liberation Day, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 5.0%. With no data releases or official statements in recent days to justify the move, it looks largely sentiment-driven. Given the scale and speed of the ascent, we view the upside as fragile and at risk of a sharp unwind, which would represent a tail risk.
Base Metals
Base metals were once again driven by copper and aluminium, both of which continued to post wide intraday swings. Aluminium’s weakness was closely linked to sharp volatility in the nearby spreads, with Cash–3M tightening further to around $176/t before collapsing towards $120/t by the end of the session. The spread unwind coincided with outright prices retreating from above $3,100/t, although the $3,000/t support level remained intact and continues to look technically and fundamentally well supported. We believe that a further normalisation in nearby spreads is unlikely, on its own, to push prices sustainably below this level. Still, aluminium’s aggressive oscillation within the recent range suggests that the market is struggling to establish a new equilibrium after the recent tightening, leaving outright prices unusually sensitive to changes at the front of the curve.
Meanwhile, copper continued to mark new lows, breaching recent support around $13,600/t and weakening towards $13,590/t, but holding the 200-day moving average support intact. The volume profile paints a mixed picture, with volume spikes accompanying both selling pressure and upside reversals. This suggests that sellers remain active, but that lower prices are also attracting increasingly meaningful dip-buying as copper approaches a more significant technical support area. For now, this points to a contested rather than one-sided market: downside momentum remains intact, but the growing two-way participation around these levels could make further declines more difficult unless the 200-day moving average breaks convincingly.
The rest of the complex was comparatively muted. Zinc held above support around $3,700/t, while lead posted modest gains towards $1,880/t and nickel hovered above $16,100/t.
Precious Metals
Oil futures stalled as the market received no fresh clarity on the Middle East conflict. Gold and silver continued to weaken on the back of a stronger dollar and higher yields. Gold fell to the key support level of $3,870/oz, its September 2025 low, while silver is testing key support at $50/oz.
All price data is from 12.11.2026 as of 17:30