Gold Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert gold market insights

Our quarterly gold outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for gold is analysed. Our research team produce gold price range forecasts as part of the report.

WATCH THE GOLD OUTLOOK FROM OUR Q1 2023 WEBINAR

Latest

Gold Outlook – Q1 2023

Gold prices have rallied in recent months, as yields started to fall in line with inflation and growth expectations. In our opinion, inflation will be upwardly sticky as higher rates will keep fixed costs high, with rents, mortgages, and business rates remaining high. The bout of redundancies we are starting to see increases the probability of stagflation, despite strong NFPs. The decline in yields will give rise to gold, and while investors are starting to price in rate cuts too soon, this trend will benefit gold and potentially stocks depending on their balance sheet and margins. The rally in the dollar has hinted at the fragility of the recent gains, we expect this theme to continue but are favourable to gold in 2023. Especially if central banks continue to purchase at their current rate and consumer demand rises in India and China...

Metals

The rally we saw in Q4 2022 and the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, as China's re-opening has not triggered a large increase in consumption and is a services play, as well as the Fed remaining hawkish on rates. The dollar has firmed, causing metals to weaken, highlighting the fragility of the move higher. Spreads are in contango, Chinese prices are mostly in discount, and weaker premiums suggest a cautious market. A soft landing in the U.S., would boost sentiment, but fundamentally Chinese demand needs to return to sustain a meaningful rally. We believe stimulus measures in China are likely to be targeted at services and the consumer, capping consumption. Markets are macro-focused at the moment, and with the near-term outlook uncertain, upside moves are unlikely to be sustained until demand returns in a meaningful way.

Q1 2023