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Expert gold market insights

Our quarterly gold outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for gold is analysed. Our research team produce gold price range forecasts as part of the report.

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Gold Outlook – Q3 2023

Gold finished Q2 2.5% lower, closing at $1,919.35/oz. We expect gold to benefit from the softening inflationary environment in Q3 as an indicator of the end of the tightening cycle from the Fed. As the long cycle of monetary policy tightening starts to yield positive results, major central banks are on the path to pause interest rate hikes. Still, credit conditions are expected to stay tight for longer, moderating economic growth and bringing yields lower...

Metals

In the previous quarter, expectations shifted from a pause in the central bank tightening cycle to further rate increases in July and potentially later in Q4 2023. As we move away from central bank-centric rhetoric, economic growth and consumer performance will be key in driving the risk sentiment across the board. Still, China's stimulus outlook remains critical to the longer-term narrative for metals this quarter. Sentiment has been improving as signs emerged that regulators are working to follow through on the promises made at the most recent Politburo meeting. However, markets remain cautious about the scale of support, and any positive news seems short-lived. As a result, the positive stimulus is more likely to solidify support levels than boost bullish sentiment in the near term.

Q3 2023