Expert silver market insights
Our quarterly silver outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for silver is analysed. Our research team produce silver price range forecasts as part of the report.
Silver Outlook – Q4 2022
Silver fluctuated throughout the quarter, but still, the combination of its industrial and precious qualities weighed on overall performance, and the metal closed the quarter down by 10%. In line with gold, much of the Fed-based negativity being priced in, the markets will be watching out for the Fed pivot signs. However, with another 125bps hike promised by the Fed this year, we do not expect this to take place until early next year, which should provide further softness for silver...
The macroeconomic outlook is deteriorating, and in our view, Europe and the UK are in recession already, and the US will be 6 months behind. Higher interest rates, in conjunction with elevated energy and electricity prices, are squeezing households’ disposable income, and new mortgage rates are considerably higher and are now a fixed cost to the consumer. We expect end-user demand to decline, and this will have an impact across the whole supply-chain; although material availability is poor for metals with bonded and exchange warehouses low in stock, this will lead to a dislocated market and volatile price action in spreads, while the macro impacts the flat price. The 20th Party Congress has ended, and their COVID policy is here to stay. As a result, sentiment in China has declined, and if the output of refined materials rises, this will put further pressure on prices. The Fed has increased the rates by 75bps with 50bps to come, but investors are looking at where they pivot, and any dovish language will cause a selloff in the dollar, giving rise to metals prices. If Chinese demand returns and the dollar weakens, this could present significant volatility and price rises, compounded inflationary pressures.
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