Iron Ore & Steel Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert iron ore and steel market insights

Our quarterly iron ore and steel outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for the iron ore and steel futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce iron ore and steel price range forecasts as part of the report.

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Iron Ore & Steel Outlook – Q2 2023

Iron ore futures sold off sharply in April, weighed down by weakening optimism out of China and subsequent output cuts from stainless steel producers. Q2 refined output still faced large uncertainties, and we expect prices to remain weak. Sustainable recovery should only coincide with protracted recovery in the construction sector, which we do not expect to take place until the latter half of the year. In the meantime, only when the steel mill cuts are deep enough to offset the demand losses, we then can expect prices to bottom out and recover...

Metals

The rally we saw in the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, and sentiment deteriorated since, especially in early May. Strong momentum out of China is absent, but recovery out of the region is underway, with services continuing to outperform. Downstream activity improved amid traditional peak season, but buyers have mostly purchased on the dip as needed. The demand outlook continues to struggle, with end-users showing continued softness in the goods’ sales. While this should lead to further easing in the supply chain issues we have witnessed in the last couple of years, looming recessionary fears are weighing on our demand outlook. With the key central banks ending their monetary policy tightening cycle, the focus is poised to shift away from inflation-centric data to fundamentals, such as economic growth and consumer performance. The historically weaker dollar should provide robust support for metals, but with the lack of a strong incentive, we struggle to see base metals significantly higher in Q2 2023.

Q2 2023