Iron Ore & Steel Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert iron ore and steel market insights

Our quarterly iron ore and steel outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for the iron ore and steel futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce iron ore and steel price range forecasts as part of the report.

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Iron Ore & Steel Outlook – Q1 2025

Iron ore was one of the worst-performing industrial metals in 2024, driven by weak demand in China amid a stagnating economy and deflation concerns. Confidence in a post-pandemic recovery has waned, with new home starts declining over 20%, suppressing steel demand. Inventory levels are high, indicating ample supply. Despite tariff announcements on steel, a challenging recovery path in the Chinese economy are likely to weigh on iron ore prospects in the coming months.

Metals

As we enter the first quarter of 2025, trade tensions heavily influence market sentiment, with Trump’s tariffs narrative shaping the overall momentum. Volatility has gripped major asset classes – including FX, bonds, and equities – as markets attempt to gauge the scale, timing, and likelihood of these tariffs being fully implemented. While Chinese New Year holidays traditionally bring a quieter tone to the first quarter of the year, tariff announcements - such as a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on aluminium and steel - are injecting moderate volatility into the metals complex. What can we expect in the metal markets in the first months of 2025?

Q1 2025