Nickel Outlook & Market Analysis - Sucden Financial > Metals Outlook > Market Insights

Expert nickel market insights

Our quarterly nickel outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic implications for the nickel futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce a nickel price range forecast as part of the report.

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Nickel Outlook – Q3 2024

Nickel, despite experiencing a volatile Q2, has the strongest fundamental narrative to keep prices subdued in the coming months. Continued oversupply from Indonesia remains the main factor affecting the outlook for nickel. Even with prices at current levels, Indonesia can still ensure profitability and continue to supply the market. As a result, we see little appetite for prices breaking significantly higher. Still, we believe nickel's fair value lies between $17,500-18,500/t, where mines can remain profitable.

Metals

As we head into Q3 2024, the markets are dealing with a different reality than what was initially expected at the beginning of the year. With Biden stepping out of the US Presidential Race, all eyes are likely to stay focused on the US until November. Additionally, there is a growing case for an increasing number of interest rate cuts this year, with major banks expected to start the cutting cycle by the end of this quarter. While this should help alleviate some of the pressures felt by the commodity space, China's muted economic performance is weighing on the base metals’ narrative. From September onward, we expect macroeconomic factors to relieve some of the pressures on the commodity market, leading to a modest increase in the latter part of Q3. We expect Q4 to bring greater market volatility.

Q3 2024