Soft Commodities Outlook

Coffee Market Outlook

This detailed coffee report is produced three times a year and supplemented with more concise coffee crop updates.

Our analysts undertake a macroeconomic assessment of major consuming and producing regions before analysing the recent earnings reports from significant participants. These can help highlight new sales and marketing techniques and coffee consumption changes.

The most extensive section is where we assess the supply and demand outlook using primary data coffee industry data and apply our fundamental models. Finally, we showcase our crop forecasts and highlight any changes before providing price forecasts and possible future and options trading strategies.

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Read our coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, and coffee market forecasts to take advantage of market movements. The coffee industry has experienced significant volatility in recent months, breaking out of the stagnant price ranges observed since October. Although we believe the underlying market fundamentals have not changed drastically, shifting market perceptions concerning the supply side tightness have driven recent price rallies. Broader volatility in the softs market is also adding to coffee price volatility.

Coffee Crop Update - Under the Weather

Read our short coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, and coffee market forecasts to take advantage of market movements. The coffee industry witnessed turbulent prices last year, affecting both Arabica and Robusta contracts. The industry remains reliant on Brazil and Vietnam, accounting for 58% of the total blend. Although the weather is still a concern, we believe that most of the damage has been done, and the expectations of a super crop are likely to fade. In our view, there is no shortage of coffee overall, but there are gaps in certain regions creating uncertainty regarding coffee accessibility.

Coffee Crop Update - A Change of Heart

Soft Commodity Technical Charts

Our dedicated research team publish soft commodity technical charts analysis three times a week, covering the New York and London coffee, cocoa and sugar futures markets. The team identifies key support and resistance levels and provides their views on future potential price moves.