NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures held their nerve on Friday as support at 17.00 held firm, and the market closed at 17.23. Technical indicators suggest a potential trend change in the near term, with the %K/%D converging on the upside in the oversold, as the MACD diff is negative and about to converge on the upside. All the DMAs provide robust resistance levels, with the 10 DMA at 17.48 as a crucial target to suggest a trend change. This could trigger further gains to the 40 DMA at 17.76 before 18.00. Alternatively, the 17.00 is a robust support level, and a break below it could trigger further softness to the January lows of 16.64. Although the technical indicators indicate a declining downside trend, the appearance of a gravestone doji candle on Friday suggests a rejection of higher prices above 10 DMA. This highlights the importance of the DMAs in signalling a potential trend change in the near future.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw futures reject prices below the 470 mark, closing at 473. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D about to converge on the upside in the oversold, as the MACD diff is negative and converging, signalling growing buying pressures. To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above the resistance at 480, which could set the scene for futures to take out the 40 DMA level at 494.98. On the downside, the market needs to take out support at 470 and then support at 464. The DMAs are showing strong resistance levels, and the longer upper wick observed on Friday indicates that the potential for upside movement may be limited in the short term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures weakened on Friday as prices failed above the support of 350 and closed at 339. The stochastics continue to fall as they decline further into the oversold. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, pointing to a growing selling pressure. A break below the robust trend support, currently at 339, would confirm the outlook for lower prices and the three black crows formation, a clear bearish sentiment. This may pave the way for lower prices to 320, with the tertiary level at 314 – a January low. Conversely, the reaffirmation of support back above 350 could suggest higher prices and a close above 10 DMA at 358, setting the scene for higher prices towards the longer-term DMAs at 370. The recent price trends indicate a growing demand for lower prices, and the indicators suggest a further decline in prices in the near future.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures softened on Friday after closing below the support of 4500 at 4463. The stochastics remain oversold; however, %K/%D are seen tailing off on the upside, suggesting waning selling pressure. The MACD diff remains negative. A break below the 4338 level would bring into play 4000, an August 2024 low. On the upside, futures need to break back above 4664 – the previous week's high - in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support there could trigger gains towards the 10 DMA level at 4463; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. A longer lower wick, where most of the trading took place in the upper ranges, points to a weakening downside appetite, and the indicators confirm this.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures rallied on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 9220, offsetting previous losses. The %K/%D is converging on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming waning selling pressures. On the upside, finding support above the 40 DMA at 9014 could trigger gains through the 10 DMA at 9660 towards 10000 – recent sessions' high. On the downside, a break back below the key support level of 200 DMA at 8650 could trigger losses back towards 8000. Futures have been constrained by the DMAs on both the upside and downside, resulting in a tight trading range. The bullish engulfing pattern indicates that selling pressure is decreasing, but the upside momentum is likely to be limited, capped by the 10 DMA resistance level in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures rallied on Friday, offsetting Thursday's losses as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 6453. The %K/%D is converging on the upside. The MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming rising buying pressures. On the downside, a break below the key support level of 6000 could trigger losses towards 5500. On the upside, a close above 6518 could trigger gains through the 200 DMA at 6649 towards 7000. A long candle body indicates more certainty in rejecting the downside; however, the 6500 level is crucial for suggesting an outlook for higher prices in the near term.
