NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures slipped on Friday, settling at 16.57 after a brief intraday bounce faded beneath the 10DMA at 16.71. The contract is still capped by the 40 DMA at 17.34 and the 100 DMA near 18.07, leaving the broader bias firmly offered. Stochastics edged lower, with %K easing to 26.08 and converging toward %D at 22.40, suggesting upside momentum continues to fade. The MACD histogram remains fractionally negative and has flattened in recent sessions, indicating bearish pressure is steady but not intensifying. Immediate support lies at the recent reaction low and the horizontal band around 16.64; a decisive close below this level would expose the psychological 16.00 region. On the upside, the 10 DMA is the first hurdle. A daily close back above 16.70–17.00 is needed to signal a pause in the down-trend and allow a corrective move toward the 40 DMA. For now, the structure remains weak, and momentum indicators imply any rebounds are likely to be shallow while prices stay below the short-term averages.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures eased on Friday, finishing at 467.10 with a small red candle that nonetheless kept the contract marginally above the 10DMA at 464.46. Prices remain capped by the 40 DMA at 478.17 and the 100 DMA near 502.23, so the medium-term bias is still soft despite the recent uptick. Stochastics continue to climb out of oversold territory, with %K rising to 54.85 and %D following at 43.02, pointing to improving short-term momentum. The MACD line is still negative, but the diff has turned slightly positive, underlining that bearish pressure is beginning to flatten. Immediate support is the horizontal band around 464.00, reinforced by last week’s low at 454.00. A decisive break beneath this zone would reopen the path toward the psychological 440.00 level. On the upside, the 40 DMA is the first objective; a daily close above 478–480 would confirm near-term basing and allow a recovery toward 493.80 and the 100 DMA. While downside risk has moderated, the trend will stay vulnerable until the market can reclaim and hold above the short-term averages.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures fell again on Friday, settling at 315.05 and printing a clear red candle that undercut the rising trend-line drawn off the March-May lows. The move dragged the market decisively below the 10DMA at 341.79, the 40DMA at 364.78 and the 100DMA near 374.83, leaving the medium-term structure fragile. Stochastics remain deeply oversold, with %K slipping to 12.97 while %D lags at 21.97; the lack of a bullish crossover points to lingering downside pressure. The MACD line has dropped to −10.76 and the diff has widened further to roughly −2.5, showing that negative momentum is still building rather than flattening. The market is now clinging to the horizontal band around 314.75 – the February swing low and a key chart level. A decisive break below that floor would expose the next major support cluster in the 300-304 area, followed by longer-term trend-line support nearer 290. On the upside, the 10-day average is first resistance; a daily close back above 342 is needed to ease immediate pressure and re-target the 40DMA and the congestion zone at 381.40. Until prices can reclaim at least the short-term average, the path of least resistance remains lower, with oversold oscillators suggesting scope for brief rebounds but not yet signalling a sustainable base.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee futures extended their slide on Friday, closing lower at 3737 after a decisive break beneath the psychological 4000 threshold. The market now sits well below every major moving average, with the 10DMA at 4152, the 40DMA at 4734 and the 100DMA near 5165 capping any rebound attempts and underscoring the entrenched down-trend. Momentum indicators reflect the persistent weakness. Stochastics remain pinned in oversold territory, with %K slipping to about 8 while %D hovers near 12, and no bullish crossover is yet apparent, suggesting downside pressure has yet to exhaust itself. The MACD line has fallen to roughly −267, and the diff has widened to around −39, showing that bearish momentum continues to build rather than flatten. Immediate support is now the psychological 3700 level; a decisive close below that level would open the way toward the longer-term horizontal floor near 3500 drawn off the early-2024 base. On the upside, the 10DMA is first resistance; the market must reclaim at least the short-term average and then the former congestion band at 4338 to signal that selling pressure is easing. With prices still accelerating lower and momentum gauges yet to stabilise, the path of least resistance remains down. While deeply oversold readings argue for intermittent bounces, a sustained recovery will require a daily close back above the 10DMA to indicate that a base is beginning to form.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures fell sharply on Friday, settling at 8169 after slicing through both the 200DMA around 8759 and the rising trend-support drawn off the March–April lows. The drop leaves the contract well below the short-term averages, with the 10DMA at 9056 and the 40DMA near 9257 now acting as stacked resistance. Momentum continues to deteriorate. Stochastics have slipped deeper into the lower quartile, with %K around 25 and still lagging a falling %D near 36, pointing to persisting downside pressure rather than an oversold reversal. The MACD line has dived to roughly –128 and the diff has widened to about –101, showing bearish momentum is accelerating rather than flattening. The next horizontal support comes in at the psychological 8000 level, followed by the broader basing band at 7336 drawn from last November’s breakout. If these levels fail to hold, the long-term floor at 6720 would come back into focus. On the upside, the market would need to reclaim the 200DMA on a closing basis to signal that selling pressure is easing; above there, the 10DMA and the recent congestion cap near 8800 are the hurdles to watch. With prices now decisively below long-term trend support and momentum gauges still pointing lower, the near-term bias remains firmly on the downside. Any relief rallies are likely to struggle while the contract remains trapped beneath the 200DMA and the short-term moving averages.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa futures sank on Friday, closing at 5617 and posting a decisive break beneath the recent consolidation floor around 6000. The contract now trades well below all major moving averages, with the 10 DMA at 6191, the 40 DMA at 6539, and the 200 DMA at 6719 acting as stacked overhead resistance. Stochastics remain deeply oversold (%K at 15.44), suggesting the sell-off may be approaching exhaustion; however, the oscillator has yet to turn higher, so evidence of stabilisation is still tentative. The MACD diff has pushed further into negative territory (-86.36), indicating that bearish momentum is widening rather than flattening for the time being. Near-term support is eyed at the February swing low of 5359; a decisive break below this level would expose the late-2023 base near 4489.87. On the upside, the psychological 6000 area and the 10 DMA form the first layer of resistance. A close back above these levels would be required to signal that downside pressure is easing and to open a possible retracement toward the 40 DMA and the horizontal barrier at 6518. For now, the broader trend remains soft and bears retain control, though the oversold stochastic reading hints that a period of consolidation, or at least a slower pace of decline, could emerge if support near 5359 holds.
