NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures firmed on Thursday, settling at 17.39 after extending the recent rebound from the 16.64 floor. The contract now sits comfortably above the 10‑DMA at 17.12 and the 40‑DMA at 16.94, confirming that near‑term trend signals have turned neutral‑to‑positive. Stochastics remain firmly overbought (%K at 87.6) and are beginning to flatten, hinting at fading upward momentum as the market approaches the heavier weight of the 100‑DMA at 17.78. Meanwhile, the MACD diff has edged into positive territory but is converging rather than extending, suggesting that bullish pressure is no longer building. A daily close above 18.00 would confirm a short‑term base at 16.64 and open the way towards 19.00 and 19.49. Failure to clear 18.00, however, could see prices drift back towards the 10‑DMA and, beneath that, the key support band at 16.64. With momentum indicators stretched, the path of least resistance near‑term favours consolidation rather than fresh gains.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures fell back on Thursday, slipping five dollars to close at 473.50 and finishing fractionally under the 10‑DMA at 474.17. Even so, the contract is still hovering just above the 40‑DMA at 468.62, keeping short‑term trend signals neutral rather than outright negative. Stochastics have rolled over from overbought territory (%K at 73.0) and are now pointing lower, suggesting the recent recovery phase is losing momentum. The MACD diff remains marginally positive but is flattening, indicating that bullish pressure is no longer building. A decisive push back above the 10‑DMA would steady the tone and re‑target the June high at 493.80, with a break there bringing 519.00 into view. Failure to defend the 40‑DMA would expose 464.00 and then the key floor at 434.30. For the moment, the market is caught between early signs of exhaustion on the topside and still‑supportive moving‑average positioning, implying further consolidation within the recent 464‑480 range.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY arabica futures dipped by just over a cent on Thursday, settling at 307.20. Despite the red candle, the contract retained most of the week’s rebound, holding above both the psychological 300 level and the 10 DMA at 292.67. The recovery is now testing the congestion formed by horizontal resistance at 314.75 and the 40 DMA at 325.17. Momentum indicators continue to improve: stochastics are ascending into the upper half of the range (%K at 74.8), and the MACD diff has turned positive and is edging higher, signalling that the prolonged bearish momentum is beginning to reverse. A clear close above 314.75 would confirm the shift in bias and target the 40 DMA, with scope thereafter towards 331.00 and the 100 DMA at 357.81. On the downside, initial support lies at 300, followed by the 10 DMA; a break beneath these levels would expose the June floor around 286.50. For now, the tone is cautiously constructive, provided prices continue to trade above the 10 DMA.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London robusta futures retreated on Thursday, settling at 3312 after failing to sustain an intra‑day bounce through the 10‑DMA at 3444. The contract remains firmly below the 40‑DMA at 3965 and the 100‑DMA at 4763, underscoring the broader down‑trend that has been in place since April. Stochastics have edged higher from deeply oversold levels (%K at 34.8) but are already flattening, hinting that upward momentum is stalling before it properly develops. In line with that, the MACD diff has narrowed to -231.5 and is converging only slowly, signalling that bearish momentum is easing but far from neutral. A close above the 10‑DMA would be the first indication that a short‑term base is forming and would open the way toward 3338 and 3664. Conversely, a break beneath the recent reaction floor at 3241 would keep the downward bias intact and risk a slide towards the psychological 3000 zone. With momentum indicators merely stabilising rather than turning, the path of least resistance still points lower unless prices can quickly reclaim ground above the 10‑DMA.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures collapsed on Thursday, diving 11% to 6763 and slicing cleanly through both the 7336 support line and the 7000 threshold. The contract now sits far below all moving averages: the 10‑DMA at 7958, the 40‑DMA at 8802 and the 200‑DMA at 8893, leaving the broader technical picture decisively bearish. Stochastics are deeply oversold (%K at 10.9) but have yet to turn higher, implying that downside pressure, while extreme, may still have room to run. In tandem, the MACD diff has widened further to -116, confirming that bearish momentum is accelerating rather than stabilising. Immediate support is flagged at 6720, followed by 6000 should the sell‑off extend. To steady the tone, prices would need to reclaim at least the 7336 area; only a recovery back above the 10‑DMA would suggest that a sustainable base is forming. Until momentum indicators begin to converge, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective within an entrenched down‑trend.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa futures extended losses on Thursday, tumbling to 4782 and registering a clear break below psychological support at 5000. The market now trades well under all major moving averages, with the 10‑DMA at 5 288, the 40‑DMA at 5 959 and the 200‑DMA at 6 783 all descending and weighing on sentiment. Stochastics remain firmly oversold (%K at 9.4) but are yet to turn higher, suggesting that downside pressure, while stretched, has not spent itself. Consistently, the MACD diff has widened further to -44.3, indicating that bearish momentum is still deepening rather than flattening. Immediate support lies at the March low of 4489; a daily close beneath that level would leave little in the way of chart support before 4000. To relieve the current pressure, prices would need to recover the 5359‑5600 congestion band, coincident with the 10‑DMA, yet such a rally looks unlikely until momentum indicators begin to improve. For now, the structure remains decisively negative, with oversold signals warning of a possible pause but offering little concrete evidence of an imminent rebound.
