1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY sugar recovered modestly to 16.49 but the market remains capped below the converging 10- and 40-DMA cluster around 16.70–16.98. The 100-DMA at 17.13 continues to weigh overhead, with resistance further up at 18.00. The MACD remains in negative territory (-0.17) and widening against its signal line, indicating persistent downside pressure. Stochastics are edging up from oversold (%K ≈ 22.99 vs %D ≈ 18.74), hinting at tentative stabilisation, yet follow-through is lacking. A sustained close back above the DMA cluster is needed to ease near-term bearish bias, otherwise the broader trend remains weak with support at 16.00 and 15.70.

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

London sugar slipped to 463.60 on Tuesday, with the candle closing below the 10 DMA (471.11) and 40 DMA (469.62). The 100 DMA at 473.76 has capped upside attempts, reinforcing near-term weakness. The MACD has crossed slightly below its signal line (-1.53 vs 0.72) and the histogram has turned negative, hinting at building bearish momentum. Slow stochastics (%K at 22.07, %D at 30.66) are approaching oversold, suggesting potential stabilisation if key horizontal support at 464.00 holds. A decisive close back above the cluster of moving averages around 470–474 would be needed to reassert upward traction toward 493.80. Below 464.00, the next major floor is at 434.30.

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

 

NY coffee retreated from recent highs, closing at 381.80 after failing again to clear horizontal resistance at 381.40. Price remains elevated above the 10-DMA at 377.99 and well clear of the 40-DMA at 327.40, but a series of long upper wicks suggests waning momentum. The MACD has flattened (18.28 vs 18.36), with diff turning slightly negative, while stochastics are rolling over from elevated levels (%K ≈ 63.58 vs %D ≈ 62.98), signalling potential short-term fatigue. Initial support is at 374.00 (near the prior breakout zone), with further downside towards the 100-DMA at 340.05 if profit-taking extends. A convincing close above 381.40 would revive bullish momentum and target 407.90.

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

London robusta eased to 4371, slipping under the 10 DMA (4551) after failing to sustain gains through 4664 resistance. The 40 DMA (3862) and 100 DMA (4223) remain supportive on pullbacks, but today’s move confirms short-term pressure after August’s steep rally. MACD is rolling over (190.75 vs 238.29), and the diff has narrowed to +47.54, showing weakening upside momentum. Stochastics (%K at 23.25, %D at 36.35) have retreated from overbought and are mid-range, indicating further room to drift lower before oversold signals emerge. A sustained move below 4338 would expose the 4223 region, while recovery through 4551 would reopen a retest of 4664.

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

 

Cocoa rebounded 2.21 % to 7395 but remains locked below the falling 10-DMA at 7570 and the 40-DMA at 7744. The 200-DMA overhead at 9056 reinforces the broader downtrend. MACD values remain negative (-163.64 vs signal -107.29) with the histogram deepening, underscoring ongoing downside pressure. Stochastics are stuck in oversold territory (%K ≈ 19.93 vs %D ≈ 21.29) but have yet to show a decisive turn higher. Resistance stands at 7570/7744, with key horizontal support at 7336 and then 7000. While the bounce hints at near-term basing, a sustained move above the 40-DMA would be required to signal a meaningful reversal.

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

 

London cocoa closed at 5102, continuing its slide under the 10 DMA (5228) and 40 DMA (5332). The 100 DMA sits higher at 6771, underscoring a broader bearish bias. The MACD at -97.53 remains below its signal (-65.52), with widening negative divergence suggesting continued downward pressure. Slow stochastics (%K at 14.68, %D at 13.21) are deep in oversold territory, hinting at potential stabilisation near horizontal support at 5100–5000. Resistance is layered at 5359, with stronger supply likely into 6518 if any rebound develops. The broader trend remains heavy unless prices close back above 5359 to challenge the mid-July consolidation band.

Contents

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