NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures held their nerve yesterday as moderate buying pressure triggered a close at 15.92. The MACD diff is negative and converging. The stochastics, however, continued to diverge on the downside, sending a mixed signal on the price direction. The inside day yesterday suggests a continuation of the recent downward trend, as highlighted by the stochastics. A break below 15.90 could signal further downside momentum, setting the stage for prices to reach new lows. Conversely, a break back above the 16.00 level could trigger gains back to the 10 DMA at 16.17. The indicators suggest growing downside momentum, and the inside candle indicates a pause before the trend’s continuation.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at the previous day’s lows. This level held firm, and futures closed at 454.30. The stochastics are rising, and the MACD diff is diverging on the upside, signalling growing buying pressures. To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above the robust resistance at 460, which could set the stage for futures to surpass the 464 level. On the downside, the market needs to break below support at 450.00 and then the recent lows at 442.60. The longer-term moving averages at 40- and 100-day levels are capping the upside potential. Therefore, we anticipate moderate buying in the near term, reaching these levels.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures opened higher yesterday but encountered resistance at 367.88, causing them to close lower on the day at 362.45. The stochastics continue to rise after rising out of the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and converging. On the downside, a break of the 40 DMA level at 360.18 could trigger losses through 10 DMA at 352.29, with the tertiary level at 350. On the upside, a break above 367 could set the scene for bullish momentum towards 380. The candle closing lower on the day could be a sign that futures found robust resistance at current levels; however, the indicators point to accelerating upside momentum. To confirm this, the robust level at 370 has been taken out first.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures rallied yesterday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 4388. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D are diverging on the upside. The MACD diff is negative and converging, outlining recent market growth. On the downside, a break back below the support level of 10 DMA at 4221 could trigger losses back towards the 100 DMA at 4076, a break below which would confirm the outlook for lower prices in the longer term. On the upside, a break above 4500 could trigger gains, extending to 4664 resistance and potentially reaching recent highs at 5000. The market rally has been strong, with yesterday’s candle confirming the strength of bull sentiment. We could see prices trend even higher today toward 4500 – a critical level which needs to be breached in order to suggest further gains.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures weakened yesterday as selling pressure prompted a close at 6511 – an October 2024 low. The stochastics are falling further into the oversold area as the MACD diff is negative and diverging, confirming the recent trend of moderate bullish momentum. Yesterday’s full candle suggests a strong appetite for lower prices, and we could see futures continue to edge lower in the near term, down to 6210 – another critical downside level. Secondary support stands at 6000, a break below which would confirm the descending triangle formation and would suggest the acceleration of the downside trend in the longer term. Conversely, support around 6210 could set the stage for higher prices to return to the 6720 level. A break above that level would help to gain upside conviction. We believe that there is an appetite for lower prices in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close below the key support level of 4698 towards 4551 – an October 2024 low. The stochastics are starting to suggest a possible trend change in the near term, with the %K/%D line converging on the upside in oversold territory. The MACD diff is negative and continues to diverge on the downside. In order to confirm a possible change of momentum, prices need to break above the current resistance at 4698 and then the 10 DMA at 4846 before the trend resistance. Conversely, a break below the support at 4489 could set the scene for a test of new lows, confirming the descending triangle formation. We expect prices to soften today and remain under pressure.
