NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar eased slightly on Tuesday, settling at 14.24, pausing after the recent rebound from early-November lows. The contract remains below all key moving averages: the 10 DMA at 14.01, 40 DMA at 14.93, and 100 DMA at 16.08, keeping the broader trend decisively bearish. The MACD diff is positive at +0.12, confirming that downside momentum continues to moderate following last week’s stabilisation. Stochastics are rising firmly, with %K at 62.73 above %D at 50.87, signalling improving short-term momentum as the recovery attempts to build. Near-term resistance sits at the 40 DMA at 14.93, followed by 15.62, where rallies have repeatedly stalled. A close above these levels would strengthen the case for a broader corrective phase. On the downside, support remains at 14.01 (10 DMA) and the recent low at 13.40, with a break below the latter reinstating the broader downtrend. For now, sugar is stabilising, but overhead DMAs continue to cap the upside, leaving the bounce vulnerable unless prices can clear 14.93.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar eased to 415.90, slipping after Monday’s modest recovery attempt. Price action remains capped beneath the 10 DMA at 412.30, 40 DMA at 431.95, and 100 DMA at 453.10, preserving the broader downtrend despite short-term stabilisation above last week’s low at 403.40. The MACD diff is positive (+2.41), signalling continued convergence and a loss of downside momentum. This aligns with the short-term basing behaviour evident since early November. Stochastics are rising, with %K at 56.71 above %D at 51.78, indicating improving momentum and room for further near-term upside before overbought conditions are approached. Immediate resistance sits at 434.30, with a break above the 40 DMA at 431.95 required to shift tactically constructive. A failure to hold above 412.30 would expose the market to a retest of 403.40, the key downside trigger for a resumption of the medium-term decline. For now, downside pressure has eased, but the structure remains heavy while prices remain confined below the 40 and 100 DMAs.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee firmed on Tuesday, closing at 387.70, extending the recent consolidation within the upper portion of its October–November range. Prices remain above the 40 DMA at 374.08 and 100 DMA at 347.39, keeping the broader tone constructive, while the 10 DMA at 384.10 is providing immediate support. The MACD diff is negative at –0.91, showing momentum has softened modestly even as price holds firm. Stochastics are mixed but still constructive, with %K at 49.07 above %D at 48.46, signalling mild upward pressure but with limited conviction. Resistance remains layered between 393.01 and 400, with stronger resistance at 407.90. A sustained break above 400 would reassert upside momentum and reopen a move towards 426.70. Initial support sits at the 10 DMA, then at 374.08 (40 DMA). A close beneath the latter would weaken the short-term structure and point back towards 345. Overall, Arabica retains a constructive medium-term tone, but momentum indicators show some hesitation, leaving the contract rangebound unless it can decisively clear 400.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London Robusta strengthened to 4573, extending its rebound within the broader consolidation zone. The contract now sits comfortably above the 10 DMA at 4509, though still below the 40 DMA at 4465 and the 100 DMA at 4129, keeping the medium-term trend neutral to mildly corrective. The MACD diff remains negative (-23.28), confirming that upside momentum has not yet turned, despite evidence of flattening in recent sessions. Stochastics are firming with %K at 46.99 above %D at 39.85, suggesting improving near-term tone after last week’s dip toward 4338. Resistance at 4664 remains the decisive upside pivot: a close above would re-establish upward momentum and reopen the September highs. Initial support lies at 4509, followed by 4338, the lower boundary of the multi-month range. The near-term picture is stabilising, but a turn in MACD will be required to confirm a stronger bullish shift.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa softened on Tuesday, settling at 5,428, extending the broader downtrend that has dominated since August. The contract remains below all key moving averages: the 10 DMA at 5,875, 40 DMA at 6,203, and 200 DMA at 8,054, underscoring persistent downside pressure. The MACD diff is negative at –72.65, confirming ongoing downward momentum, though there are early signs of the decline slowing as histogram bars contract. Stochastics remain weak, with %K at 13.25 below %D at 20.38, keeping the market firmly in oversold territory and highlighting the risk of continued volatility. Immediate support lies at 5,400 and then the recent low near 5,300. A break beneath these levels would expose deeper weakness towards the psychological 5,000 area. Initial resistance stands at 5,875 (10 DMA), where rallies have repeatedly failed, followed by 6,210. Overall, sentiment remains bearish, with momentum indicators showing no confirmed reversal. Oversold stochastics warn that near-term stabilisation is possible, but without a close above 5,875 the broader downtrend stays firmly intact.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa ticked higher to 4116, holding just above recent lows but still entrenched within a well-defined downtrend. Prices remain below all key moving averages: the 10 DMA at 4294, 40 DMA at 4416, and 200 DMA at 5796, reinforcing the broader bearish structure. The MACD diff is negative (-34.21), consistent with sustained downside momentum even as the histogram shows slight convergence. Stochastics have turned up from oversold, with %K at 14.24 above %D at 20.35, suggesting early stabilisation but still deeply depressed levels. Immediate resistance comes in at 4296, with a break above the 10 DMA at 4294 required to signal short-term relief. Support remains at 4116 and the November low zone; a break lower would expose 4000 psychological support. Despite tentative momentum improvement, the dominant trend remains firmly downward until the contract can reclaim the 10 and 40 DMAs.
