NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar firmed slightly on Friday, closing at 14.29, continuing its modest rebound from the recent low near 13.80. The market remains below the 10 DMA at 14.15, the 40 DMA at 14.78, and the 100 DMA at 16.02, keeping the broader structure decisively bearish. The MACD is negative at –0.22, but the diff is marginally positive at 0.11, indicating early signs of convergence after a prolonged decline. Stochastics have risen into mid-range territory (%K 61.54, %D 57.70), signalling improving short-term momentum, though still without a breakout from resistance. Immediate resistance stands at 14.78 (40 DMA), followed by 15.62. A close above the latter would be needed to break the downward sequence of lower highs. Support lies at 13.80, with a move back below this level risking a return towards October’s lows. In the near term, NY sugar shows tentative signs of stabilisation, but with MACD still negative and prices firmly below the DMAs, the broader trend remains downward.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar edged higher to 14.29, extending the modest recovery from the 403.40 low. Price remains below the 10 DMA (14.15), 40 DMA (14.78) and 100 DMA (16.02), keeping the broader structure firmly bearish despite the recent stabilisation. The MACD is still negative, with the histogram slightly positive but the MACD line below the signal line (MACD: –0.22). This confirms that downside momentum has eased but not reversed. Stochastics have pushed higher, with %K around 61 and %D near 57, showing improving short-term momentum but not an established bullish turn. Immediate resistance stands at 14.83, followed by the heavier level at 15.62. A sustained close above both would be required to signal a shift in tone. On the downside, the recent cluster lows around 14.00–14.10 remain critical; a break back below would re-expose the October trough at 13.40. For now, momentum continues to improve, but price action remains capped by declining DMAs and the bias stays cautiously heavy.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee eased on Friday, closing at 369.45, pulling back from recent consolidation. The candle modestly rejected the 10 DMA at 380.26, keeping futures within the established sideways band between 349.76 (100 DMA support) and 393.01 overhead resistance. The MACD remains positive, with the line at 0.4 but the diff negative at –1.88, signalling that momentum is softening even as the broader structure stays mildly constructive. Stochastics are mid-range (%K 39.69, %D 43.22) and flattening, consistent with indecisive directional bias. Prices sit above the 40 DMA at 375.63 and the 100 DMA at 349.76, maintaining a broader constructive undertone despite the recent pullback. Upside confirmation still requires a decisive close above 393.01, which would unblock a move towards 407.90 and 426.70. A break back below 349.76 would weaken the medium-term tone and return the market to a more bearish footing. For now, NY coffee remains rangebound, with softening momentum indicators suggesting consolidation rather than trend extension.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee slipped to 4506, remaining within the choppy consolidation that has defined November. Price sits near the 10 DMA (4488) and above the 40 DMA (4494) but still below the 100 DMA (4157), leaving the medium-term bias neutral but with no decisive break in either direction. The MACD is positive (MACD: +7.89), though the histogram remains negative (diff –5.84), indicating that momentum has flattened and is no longer strengthening. Stochastics are mid-range, with %K around 65 and %D near 55, showing mild upward pressure but no overbought signal. Key resistance remains at 4664, the ceiling that has repeatedly capped rallies since September. A clear break above would open a move back toward 4900. Support lies at 4338, followed by the more substantial base at 4157. The near-term structure is directionless, with momentum mixed and the market still unable to escape the broad sideways range that has defined the autumn months.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa extended its decline on Friday, settling at 5159, holding just above the recent low at 5070. The candle shows limited follow-through buying after Thursday’s bounce, keeping the broader tone subdued. Prices remain below all key DMAs: the 10 DMA at 5541, 40 DMA at 6068, and 200 DMA at 7975. This keeps the downtrend intact, reinforced by the descending trendline drawn from the March highs. Momentum signals continue to weaken. The MACD remains negative at –313.5 with the diff also negative at –79.87, confirming persistent downside pressure. The stochastics (%K at 10.67, %D at 13.73) remain deeply oversold, but without a clear turn higher, offering only tentative signs of stabilisation near support. Initial resistance is at 5541, where the 10 DMA and previous congestion converge. A break above 6210 would be required to ease the downward bias. Immediate support sits at 5070, with a breakdown likely inviting a deeper retracement towards the 5000 psychological level. For now, NY cocoa remains entrenched in a downtrend, with oversold stochastics hinting at potential stabilisation but no confirmed reversal.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa fell to 3879, continuing to track lower within its entrenched downtrend. Price is firmly below the 10 DMA (4101), 40 DMA (4343) and 200 DMA (5731), keeping the overall trend decisively bearish. The MACD is negative and widening again, confirming that downside momentum has re-accelerated after brief stabilisation earlier in the week. Stochastics sit deep in oversold territory, with %K around 10 and %D around 14, suggesting the potential for short-term pauses but not yet a technical reversal. Initial resistance is at 4296, followed by 4698. Support lies at the newly printed low at 3842; a break below would extend the decline towards the lower horizontal targets around 3750–3700. With price below all major DMAs and momentum deteriorating again, the overarching tone remains decisively bearish, and rallies are likely to meet heavy overhead supply.
