NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar extended its recent recovery to 14.45 but stalled below the falling 40 DMA at 14.68, with the 10 DMA at 14.26 now acting as initial intraday support. The broader bias remains heavy while futures sit beneath the 100 DMA at 15.97 and the key horizontal cap at 15.62. Stochastics continue to rise, with %K at 71.52 above %D at 63.95, signalling firming short-term momentum after the October low. The MACD diff is positive, confirming that downside momentum has faded, though the histogram remains shallow and not yet indicative of a trend shift. A break above 14.83 and then 15.62 would be required to suggest a more durable upside phase. On the downside, the recent low at 14.00 remains the key pivot; a close beneath this would warn of renewed selling pressure. For now, momentum indicators favour modest stabilisation, but the dominant structure stays bearish under major DMAs.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar extended its recovery, settling at 423.50, building on the higher low formed above the 403.40 trough. Price action remains below the 10-DMA (418.06) but is now only marginally under the 40-DMA (427.24), indicating an early attempt to stabilise after the October sell-off. The 100-DMA (450.85) continues to cap the broader downtrend. The MACD is still negative, but the Diff shows continued convergence towards the signal line, pointing to waning downside momentum. Stochastics have risen to %K 64.14 / %D 57.63, crossing decisively out of oversold territory and signalling near-term constructive momentum. The candle structure shows a steady upward bias following the higher low, but price remains below the key horizontal resistance at 434.30 and remains vulnerable unless this level is reclaimed. Near-term tone is cautiously constructive, with improving momentum but resistance heavy into 434.30.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee bounced sharply on the day, closing above the 10 DMA at 377.00 and holding just below the 40 DMA at 376.77, with both DMAs flattening as price consolidates in a broad range between 351.68 (100 DMA) and 393.01 resistance. Stochastics are turning higher, with %K at 52.22 above %D at 46.26, signalling rising short-term momentum. The MACD diff is negative, with MACD at +0.62 but signal line at +1.61, indicating mild downside divergence that tempers the strength of today’s recovery. Near-term resistance stands at 393.01 and then 407.90; a break above these would reinstate the late-October upside bias. Support sits at the 100 DMA at 351.68 and the horizontal floor at 314.75. The market remains range-bound, with short-term momentum improving but broader trend signals mixed.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee slipped to 4414, easing back from the upper end of its recent range but still holding above the 10-DMA (4451) and just below the 40-DMA (4507). The broader structure remains rangebound between 4338 and 4664, with the rising 100-DMA (4173) supporting from below. The MACD is negative, while the Diff (+13.56) shows the histogram continuing to move upward, confirming a convergence phase. Stochastics at %K 58.70 / %D 58.32 remain mid-range and flat, consistent with non-directional trading. Price action remains indecisive, with repeated failures to break 4664 keeping the market capped. The long upper wicks seen in recent sessions underline hesitation at resistance. A decisive settlement above 4664 would be required to re-establish upside traction towards 4900+. Conversely, a break below 4338 risks exposing 4173 (100-DMA) and the lower bound of the multi-month range. Near-term tone is neutral, with convergence constructive but range boundaries intact.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa slid again, extending its decline beneath the 10 DMA at 5357 and the 40 DMA at 5980, confirming persistent downside pressure. The 200 DMA at 7926 remains far above the market, underscoring the entrenched bearish trend. Stochastics remain subdued, with %K at 13.11 only marginally above %D at 13.13, signalling deeply oversold but unstable momentum. The MACD diff is negative (around –63.30), showing continued downside divergence and no sign yet of a momentum floor. The recent low at 4924 is the immediate support; a daily close below this would risk an extension toward deeper structural levels. Initial resistance sits at the 10 DMA, followed by the heavier cap at 5357 and the broader pivot at 6210. Despite oversold conditions, indicators do not yet confirm a reversal, and rallies are likely to face sustained supply.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa extended its slide, settling at 3783, near the session’s lows and only slightly above the new cycle low at 3650. The market remains firmly beneath the 10-DMA (3997), 40-DMA (4293) and 200-DMA (5689), anchored in a persistent downtrend reinforced by the dominant descending trendline. The MACD (–179.39) is deeply negative, and although the Diff (–46.29) shows modest convergence, momentum remains decisively bearish. Stochastics at %K 13.08 / %D 12.76 remain deeply oversold, consistent with ongoing pressure but hinting at potential stabilisation if horizontal support holds. The candle pattern shows no meaningful rejection of lows, with successive closes near the lower end of the daily range. A break below 3650 would open further downside towards the historical support cluster near 3500, while any recovery attempt would need to clear 3997 (10-DMA) to ease immediate selling pressure. Near-term tone is bearish, with oversold stochastics offering only limited scope for short-term stabilisation unless 10-DMA resistance is reclaimed.
