NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar extended its recent recovery, settling at 14.73, with a firm green candle marking the third week of stabilisation off the 14.00 area. The stochastics remain elevated, with %K above %D and both lines rising through the 80 region, signalling strong short-term momentum, though the market is now entering overbought territory. The MACD diff is positive, with the histogram above zero, confirming improving momentum and divergence from the prior downtrend. The MACD line itself remains slightly negative but is converging steadily towards the signal line. Price action has moved above the 10 DMA at 14.40, but remains below the 40 DMA at 14.62 and the 100 DMA at 15.92, leaving the broader trend still firmly bearish. A decisive close above the 15.62 resistance would be required to signal more durable upside potential, followed by heavier resistance at 16.64. On the downside, initial support is at 14.40, with deeper structural support at 14.00. A close back under the latter would suggest that the current recovery lacks conviction. For now, momentum indicators are constructive, but the overarching structure continues to face strong overhead supply.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar extended its recent recovery, closing higher at 14.45, with another green candle shaping a modest continuation of the rebound from the late-October low at 14.00. Stochastics have risen sharply, with %K at 71.52 above %D at 63.95, confirming short-term momentum remains to the upside. The MACD is still negative, but the histogram shows positive diff, signalling early signs of momentum stabilisation rather than a confirmed shift. Despite firmer momentum, the broader structure stays decisively bearish, with price still below the 10 DMA (14.26), 40 DMA (14.68) and 100 DMA (15.97). A break above the 10 DMA is the first step toward easing the pressure, but the heavier resistance band at 15.62–16.02 remains the key ceiling that must give way to challenge the more meaningful pivot at 16.64. On the downside, the market continues to lean on the 14.00 low, and any close back beneath this level would warn that the recent recovery is fading. For now, momentum favours further consolidation, but the bearish medium-term tone dominates while the market remains capped by the DMAs overhead.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee firmed to 381.20, posting a modest up-day within a tightly consolidating range. Stochastics are rising, with %K above %D and both lines firming through the mid-60s, pointing to improving upward momentum after several sessions of indecision. The MACD diff is negative, with the histogram below zero, and the MACD line sits beneath the signal line, confirming that broader momentum remains weak. However, the lines are converging, which aligns with the tentative stabilisation seen in price. Futures continue to oscillate around the 10 DMA at 378.00, while the 40 DMA at 377.53 sits just beneath. This clustering of shorter DMAs highlights an undecided short-term picture. The broader trend remains capped by the 100 DMA at 353.60, which has been flatlining but still acts as underlying support. Upside resistance is well-defined at 393.01, with the heavier structural barrier at 407.90. A break above the former is required to renew upside momentum. On the downside, support sits at 353.60 from the 100 DMA, followed by the more material level at 314.75. Overall, coffee is consolidating, with improving near-term momentum but still lacking a confirmed bullish signal while MACD remains negative.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee firmed to close at 383.30, posting a constructive session that keeps price anchored in the upper part of the recent consolidation band. Stochastics show %K at 52.22, just above %D at 46.26, signalling modest upward traction. The MACD is marginally negative at –0.6196, with diff also slightly negative, indicating that broader momentum remains soft despite the stabilising near-term picture. Price continues to oscillate around the 10 DMA (377.00) and 40 DMA (376.77), while the 100 DMA (351.68) remains strong underlying support. The range between 393.01 and 407.90 continues to act as a heavy ceiling, and a close above 393.01 is required to re-open the upper end of the range and shift bias more convincingly positive. Initial support stands at 351.68–348.98, where the 100 DMA and horizontal levels align. A break beneath this area would risk a deeper retracement. For now, coffee remains range-bound with slight upward momentum, but without a clear break from its established consolidation zone.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa advanced sharply to 5504, with a strong green candle marking a decisive rebound from the earlier lows near 4924. Stochastics have turned higher, with %K above %D, indicating renewed short-term strength. The MACD diff is negative, and the MACD line remains below the signal line, confirming that overall momentum is still weak. Nevertheless, the lines are converging, consistent with the turn in price and early signs of stabilisation after a prolonged and steep decline. Price action has reclaimed the 10 DMA at 5275, but remains firmly below the 40 DMA at 5914 and the 100 DMA at 7877, preserving the dominant bearish structure. The long-term downtrend is intact, reinforced by the descending trendline extending from the December 2024 highs. Initial resistance lies at 5914, followed by more significant barriers at 6210 and 6720. A break above these layers would be required to signal a material shift in trend. Support is established at 5275, with deeper levels around 4924 marking the recent capitulation low. For now, cocoa shows early signs of basing, but the market continues to trade within a well-defined bear trend, and momentum indicators have yet to confirm a broader reversal.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa slipped to 5099, producing another red candle that keeps the market pinned within its long-established downtrend. The MACD remains deeply negative at –330.2054, with diff also negative (–63.302), showing downside momentum is still dominant. Stochastics (%K 13.11, %D 13.13) remain in oversold territory but are flat, signalling no confirmed turn yet. Price remains below the 10 DMA (5357), 40 DMA (5980) and far below the 100 DMA (7926), reinforcing the entrenched bearish bias. Downtrend resistance drawn from the March peak continues to cap every rally attempt, and the recent rejection near 5357 highlights persistent overhead pressure. Immediate support is located at the recent low at 4924, and a close beneath this would expose the next cluster of historical supports below 4800. Conversely, the first sign of stabilisation would be a daily close back above the 10 DMA, but more meaningful trend change requires reclaiming 6210. For now, cocoa remains structurally heavy, with indicators offering little evidence of momentum reversal beyond oversold conditions.
