NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar extended its recent recovery, settling at 14.47, with the short-term bias stabilising after last week’s bounce. Price now trades above the 10 DMA at 14.39, with the 40 DMA at 14.53 and the 100 DMA at 15.87 still overhead and maintaining a broader downtrend structure. Tuesday’s candle was constructive but not decisive, holding above 14.20 support while stalling beneath the 15.00 region. Stochastics continue to rise, with %K around 59.96 and %D at 67.09, maintaining upward momentum but approaching levels where previous rallies have paused. The MACD remains negative (MACD: –0.0574 vs signal –0.1541), though the histogram is marginally positive, signalling continued convergence rather than a confirmed bullish turn. Near-term, price must break above the 40 DMA (14.53) and then 15.00 / 15.62 to develop broader upside traction. A failure to hold the 10 DMA risks a pullback toward 14.20 or even 14.00.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar extended its rebound, settling at 425.00, with the candle closing above the 10 DMA (c. 422.91) and testing the 40 DMA (c. 423.61). The 100 DMA overhead at 448.53 remains a broader trend constraint, with price still tracking within a longer-term downtrend despite the recent recovery from the late-October low at 403.40. Stochastics are rising, with %K at 61.18 exceeding %D at 67.45, reflecting improving short-term momentum, albeit approaching mid-range levels where signals often lose clarity. MACD remains negative (MACD –0.116 vs Signal 2.12), though the diff is slightly improved, indicating early convergence rather than a confirmed momentum shift. A sustained close above 434.30 would be the first meaningful upside trigger, exposing 448.53 (100 DMA) before the more material resistance at 464.00. Failure to hold the 10 DMA risks a pullback into the 421.84–414 area, where the market would need to stabilise to avoid retesting the 403.40 base. Short-term tone is cautiously constructive, but the broader structure remains capped until the DMAs flatten.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee slipped to 373.45, posting a softer candle that continues to oscillate within the well-defined range seen through November. Price remains above the 10 DMA at 378.26, but Tuesday’s close dipped fractionally below it, softening the immediate tone. The 40 DMA at 377.88 and 100 DMA at 355.38 continue to define the medium-term structure, with the market still unable to break convincingly above 393.00 range resistance. Stochastics have turned lower, with %K at 63.60 and %D at 60.70, suggesting fading momentum after last week’s failed attempt to challenge 393. The MACD is negative (MACD: –0.2057 vs signal –0.9841), though convergence continues and the histogram is less negative than in mid-November. Key downside levels sit at the 40 DMA (377.88) and then 355.00, while overhead resistance remains at 393.00 and 407.90. A daily close above 393 is needed to re-establish upside momentum; otherwise, price risks reverting to the lower end of the range.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee eased to 4219, slipping back towards the lower end of the recent consolidation range. Price continues to oscillate around the 10 DMA (c. 4426) and below the 40 DMA (c. 4498), while the 100 DMA at 4220 acted as an initial intraday support, leaving the broader trend still sideways-to-soft beneath the heavy resistance band at 4338–4426. MACD remains firmly negative (MACD –45.47 vs Signal –17.49), with the diff widening, signalling persistent downward momentum despite the absence of directional follow-through in price. Stochastics (%K 25.09, %D 29.73) are recovering from near-oversold territory, which may limit downside pressure in the immediate term. A close back above 4338 is required to re-energise the upside and retarget 4426, then 4664. Near-term risks remain skewed to softness while price trades below the 40 DMA, with a break under 4200–4170 opening the path back towards the August swing lows. Short-term support from stochastics contrasts with the still-bearish MACD configuration, keeping the tone cautious.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa firmed modestly to 5455, extending the corrective bounce from the 4924 low. Price has reclaimed the 10 DMA at 5287, and Tuesday’s candle continued to consolidate above this level. However, the 40 DMA at 5876 remains a significant cap, reinforcing the dominant downtrend defined by the long-term descending channel. The stochastics continue to push higher, with %K at 59.75 and %D at 41.89, showing building upward momentum that has carried out of oversold territory. The MACD remains firmly negative (MACD: –245.63 vs signal –273.91), but the histogram has shifted positive, confirming continued convergence. Initial resistance lies at 5876 (40 DMA) and then 6210, which must be reclaimed to challenge the broader bear trend. Support is at the 10 DMA (5287) and then 5200 / 5000, with a break below 5200 risking a return to the 4924 low.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa slipped to 4036, posting a softer candle that failed to push above the 10 DMA (c. 3922) decisively. Price remains below the 40 DMA (4232) and the broader trend-defined 200 DMA (5584), keeping the market firmly within its multi-month downtrend despite the modest rebound from the November low at 3650. MACD is negative (MACD –126.85 vs Signal –145.00), but the diff is positive, indicating convergence as downside momentum gradually moderates. Stochastics continue to rise (%K 64.19, %D 46.18), signalling improving near-term momentum after the earlier oversold troughs. Resistance at 4296.00 remains the key upside pivot; a close above this would neutralise the immediate downtrend structure and allow a move towards 4468–4698. Failure to hold above 3997 (10 DMA zone) would expose a deeper retracement towards 3830–3650, where the market would again rely on oversold stochastics for stabilisation. Overall tone is tentatively constructive in the very short term, but the dominant downtrend remains intact until the 40 DMA is reclaimed.
