NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar eased slightly to 14.30, holding above last week’s lows but struggling to build upward traction. The 10-DMA (14.46) and 40-DMA (14.37) continue to cap rallies, with price pinned beneath all major moving averages and the 100-DMA (15.73) persisting as a wider structural ceiling. Stochastics have rolled lower, with %K below %D and turning down from the mid-40s, signalling fading momentum. MACD is slightly negative but the diff is positive, showing early convergence, though not enough yet to alter the trend. Resistance remains at 15.62, where previous breakdown support and the declining moving averages cluster. A close above the 10- and 40-DMAs would be the first constructive signal. Immediate support sits near 14.00, with a break putting 13.50 back in view.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar slipped to 415.70, extending the recent softening after failing to hold above the 10 DMA at 423.93. The market remains capped by the 40 DMA at 420.36 and the 100 DMA at 445.86, reinforcing the broader downtrend that has been dominant since late summer. The candle shows renewed selling pressure following last week's corrective bounce from the 403.40 low, and momentum signals remain fragile. The MACD is negative at –0.7832, though its histogram shows mild positive divergence, indicating some deceleration in downside momentum rather than a confirmed shift. Stochastics have rolled lower, with %K at 28.83, slipping from mid-range and signalling weakening short-term momentum. A break below 410–403 would reinstate bearish control and expose the September/October support region. Initial resistance sits at 434.30, where repeated failures through November/December highlight persistent overhead supply. Near-term tone remains soft, with stabilisation unlikely unless price can recover and close above the 10 and 40 DMAs.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee firmed modestly to 368.75, remaining within the tight range that has defined trade since mid-October. Prices hover near the 10-DMA (376.0) and 40-DMA (379.2), both of which are flattening but still exert downward pressure. The broader backdrop remains neutral-to-heavy while the 100-DMA (358.8) provides underlying support. Stochastics are softening, with %K below %D and turning down from the upper-30s, indicating cooling momentum after repeated failures near 393.0. MACD is clearly negative (MACD ≈ –1.64, Signal ≈ –0.26) and the diff is negative, implying renewing downside momentum. Price continues to oscillate between 314.75 on the downside and 393.0 on the upside. A daily close below the 100-DMA would expose the lower end of this range, while a break above 393.0 remains the key trigger for any sustained recovery toward 408 and 426.70.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee eased to 4109, extending the pullback through the 10 DMA (4256) and approaching the lower end of the November consolidation band. The 40 DMA at 4463 continues to cap rallies, while the 100 DMA at 4261 has now been lost, shifting the short-term structure towards mild deterioration. The MACD is firmly negative at –94.6592, with the signal line also negative and the histogram showing continued negative values, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. Stochastics remain weak, with %K at 8.04, deep inside oversold territory but not yet signalling a constructive turn. Price remains vulnerable while below 4338 and 4442, with sellers repeatedly defending these levels over the past month. A clean break below 4000 would expose the mid-year troughs. Conversely, any rebound back above the 100 DMA would be the first indication of downside exhaustion. Tone is bearish, though oversold stochastics warn of scope for temporary stabilisation near key supports.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa extended its recovery on Tuesday, closing at 5882, marking another advance away from November’s 4924 low. Price continues to push above the 10-DMA (5498), with the 40-DMA (5833) now being tested from below. The broader trend remains structurally bearish, reinforced by the downward-sloping 200-DMA (7725), but recent price action is showing early evidence of base-building. Stochastics are firm, with %K above %D and rising through the 80 region, confirming improving upside momentum after turning from oversold in mid-November. MACD remains negative but the diff is positive, reflecting continued convergence and an ongoing reduction in downside pressure. A sustained close above the 40-DMA and the former support band at 6210 would strengthen the case for a short-term trend reversal, opening a move toward 6720. Failure back below 5498 would instead signal a stalled recovery and risk a retest of 5200–5000.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa firmed to 4253, extending last week's recovery from the 3650 low and pushing back above the 10 DMA (4030). The market is testing the descending trendline from March, but remains decisively below the 40 DMA (4217) and far beneath the 200 DMA (5498), keeping the broader trend negative despite the recent bounce. The MACD remains negative at –61.1117, but its histogram shows continued positive divergence, reflecting moderating downside momentum and supporting the stabilisation narrative. Stochastics have climbed sharply, with %K at 81.33, now exiting oversold conditions and entering overbought territory, signalling that the recovery is becoming stretched into resistance.Immediate resistance lies at 4296 and 4698, the latter marking the stronger structural pivot. A failure below the 10 DMA would risk a return towards the 3900–3650 support band. The short-term tone has improved, but the broader structure remains cautiously corrective, with upside traction likely to be limited unless price can sustain a break above the 40 DMA and trendline.
