NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar edged higher to 14.7 into the end of last week, extending its rebound from the November low. Price has stabilised above the 10 DMA, though it remains below the 40 DMA and the 100 DMA, keeping the broader trend biased to the downside. Momentum is showing early signs of improvement. MACD has turned marginally positive, indicating a tentative shift away from downside momentum. Stochastics have lifted from oversold levels and are rising, consistent with a short-term corrective bounce rather than a full trend reversal. Near-term resistance is seen around 15.00–15.20, where the declining 40 DMA comes into play. A failure to clear this zone would leave the market vulnerable to renewed weakness back towards 14.30, with the November low remaining the key downside reference.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar extended its rebound from the November low to 426.2 but remains structurally heavy. Price has recovered back above the 10 DMA, though it continues to trade below the 40 DMA and the 100 DMA, keeping the broader trend biased lower. The recovery stalled ahead of the former congestion band around the mid-430s, where selling pressure has re-emerged. Momentum signals remain mixed. MACD is still marginally negative, although the histogram has turned less negative, pointing to waning downside momentum rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Stochastics have lifted from oversold territory but are now flattening, suggesting the rebound is losing momentum near resistance. A sustained close above the 40 DMA would be needed to improve near-term tone and open scope for a move back towards the 445–450 area. Failure to build on the recent bounce leaves the market vulnerable to renewed pressure towards 434, with a return towards the 403 low possible if selling accelerates.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee softened last Friday to 369.3. Price is holding above the 100 DMA but has slipped back below the 10 DMA and the 40 DMA, signalling a loss of near-term momentum within a still-rangebound structure. Momentum indicators remain soft. MACD is negative, with limited sign of upside acceleration, while stochastics have turned lower from mid-range levels, pointing to a period of consolidation rather than immediate upside follow-through. Support is seen around 360, with stronger support closer to the 350 area. On the upside, the market needs to reclaim the 40 DMA to re-establish bullish momentum and refocus attention on the recent highs near 390–400.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee softened further to 3999, slipping back below the 10 DMA and continuing to trade below the 40 DMA and the 100 DMA, reinforcing the broader corrective structure that has been in place since September. Recent price action shows a sequence of lower highs, with rallies continuing to fade quickly. Momentum remains weak. MACD is firmly negative, with the signal lines flat to lower, indicating that downside pressure is still dominant. Stochastics have rolled back down towards the lower end of their range, highlighting limited upside traction and the risk of further consolidation or renewed weakness. Initial support is seen around the 3,950–3,900 area. A clear break below this zone would expose the market to a deeper retracement towards the summer lows. Any recovery attempt would need to reclaim the 40 DMA to stabilise the near-term outlook.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa edged lower to 6279, keeping above the 10 DMA but still below the 40 DMA and well beneath the falling 200 DMA. This keeps the broader structure corrective despite the recent rebound. Momentum has improved materially. MACD has turned positive, with the histogram expanding, confirming strengthening upside momentum from the recent base. Stochastics are elevated and approaching overbought levels, suggesting the rally may pause as it approaches resistance. Initial resistance is seen around 6,300–6,350, with a more significant hurdle at 6,720. A failure to clear these levels would likely result in consolidation back towards 5,800–5,700, while a clean break higher would strengthen the case for a broader recovery phase.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa continued to recover from its October low, increasing to 4543, pushing back above the 10 DMA and holding above short-term trend support. However, price remains capped below the 40 DMA, while the 200 DMA continues to slope lower, underlining that the broader trend is still corrective. Momentum is improving but not yet decisive. MACD has turned positive, with the histogram expanding modestly, signalling improving upside momentum following the recent base formation. Stochastics are rising and approaching overbought territory, suggesting the rally may slow as it approaches resistance. The market now faces initial resistance in the 4,650–4,700 region. A sustained break above this area would strengthen the recovery narrative and open scope towards the 5,000 zone. Failure here would likely see consolidation back towards 4,300–4,250.
