NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower into the end of the week, with prices closing at 14.28. Price action remains capped below the declining 40 DMA at 14.37, while the 10 DMA at 14.60 continues to act as near-term resistance, reinforcing the broader downward structure.
Momentum indicators are mixed but fragile. The MACD diff has turned marginally positive, signalling early stabilisation, though the histogram remains shallow and lacks conviction. Meanwhile, stochastics are rising, with %K/%D moving higher from oversold territory, suggesting a tentative recovery attempt rather than a confirmed reversal.
To confirm a more constructive near-term outlook, futures need to close back above the 40 DMA at 14.37, followed by a move through the 16.00 level. Failure to regain these levels would leave prices vulnerable to renewed weakness, with initial support seen at 14.00, and a break below this level reopening downside risk towards 13.50. For now, the market appears to be consolidating after the recent sell-off.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
London sugar futures extended the recent stabilisation on Friday, with prices closing at 417.20. Price action continues to hold above the late-October low at 403.40, but remains capped beneath the downward-sloping longer-term DMAs. The contract is trading just below the 10 DMA at 423.59 and the 40 DMA at 420.16, while the 100 DMA at 439.98 continues to define broader trend resistance.
Momentum signals are mixed. Stochastics are rising, with %K/%D lifting towards mid-range, suggesting improving near-term momentum after the recent rebound. However, the MACD remains marginally positive but flat, indicating a lack of conviction behind the move and little follow-through so far.
To confirm a more constructive short-term outlook, futures need to reclaim the 10 DMA at 423.6 and then close above the 40 DMA at 420–422, which would open scope for a test of 434.30. On the downside, a break back below 417 would refocus attention on 403.40, where support remains critical for preventing a renewed leg lower. For now, price action suggests consolidation rather than trend reversal.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures rebounded modestly on Friday, closing at 341.45, but the broader technical picture remains heavy. Prices continue to trade below the 40 DMA at 365.62 and the 100 DMA at 367.43, keeping the medium-term bias firmly negative.
The MACD diff is negative, though it has flattened slightly, indicating that bearish momentum is no longer accelerating but remains present. Stochastics are rising from oversold levels, pointing to short-covering rather than a change in trend.
To confirm a more durable recovery, futures need to reclaim the 350 level and then challenge the 40 DMA at 365.62. Without this, the recent bounce risks fading. On the downside, a failure to hold above 340 would expose support at 314.75, which remains a critical level for the broader structure. Overall, the technicals suggest consolidation within a bearish trend.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
London coffee futures edged lower on Friday, closing at 3954, but found support just above the 10 DMA at 3823 after recent weakness. Prices remain below the 40 DMA at 4210 and the 100 DMA at 4341, keeping the broader trend firmly biased to the downside despite the latest bounce.
The stochastics are rising out of oversold territory, with %K/%D diverging on the upside, signalling short-term stabilisation following the late-December sell-off. In contrast, the MACD remains negative, although the histogram is converging, suggesting that downside momentum is slowing rather than accelerating.
To confirm a more durable recovery, futures need to break above the 10 DMA at 3823 and then retake 4100–4210, where the 40 DMA sits. Failure to do so leaves the market vulnerable to renewed pressure, with a break back below 3900 likely to expose 3700. Overall, the chart points to a corrective bounce within a broader bearish structure.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged lower at the end of the week, closing at 5908, with prices struggling to build on the recent rebound from the 4924 low. Futures remain below the 40 DMA at 5782, while the 10 DMA at 6011 is now acting as overhead resistance.
Momentum indicators are cautiously constructive. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, signalling improving underlying momentum, while stochastics are rising, with %K/%D continuing to trend higher. This suggests buying interest is building, though price confirmation is still lacking.
To confirm the recovery, futures need to break and hold above 6000, followed by a move towards resistance at 6210. Failure to do so would leave prices vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, with initial support seen at 5800, and stronger support at 5359. For now, cocoa appears to be stabilising, but remains range-bound within a broader corrective phase.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa futures remained under pressure on Friday, with prices closing at 4243. The contract continues to trade below the descending trendline and beneath the 10 DMA at 4311 and 40 DMA at 4194, while the 200 DMA at 5329 reinforces the longer-term bearish backdrop.
Stochastics are flat and turning lower from mid-range, indicating fading upside momentum following the November rebound. The MACD remains positive but is converging, suggesting that bullish momentum is losing traction rather than strengthening.
To confirm further downside, futures need to take out support at 4200, which would expose 4030–4000. On the upside, only a close back above 4310 would relieve immediate pressure and allow a test of 4698, though this currently looks unlikely given the prevailing structure. Thin candle bodies around current levels highlight indecision, but the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside.
