NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar weakened on Friday, as resistance in the form of 10- and 40-day moving averages continued to cap upside momentum, keeping the pair below 14.50 and closing the day near 14.30. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D about to converge on the downside, as the MACD diff remains in the negative territory. This suggests we could stronger selling pressure accelerate should the technicals send a strong signal.
In the meantime, the support at 14.30 is firm; however, should this level break, we expect prices to decline to 14.00 - a strong psychological support level. With shorter-term moving averages capping the upside, any breach above this cluster would prompt a move towards the 200-day MA near 15.00, leaving limited room for a technical reversal in the long term. We expect prices to remain subdued, with downside risk growing in the coming days.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures softened on Friday as moderate selling pressure saw them retest appetite at 420, closing there. The stochastics are weakening, with %K/%D declining after converging on the downside, and a neutral position suggests more room for downside momentum should the appetite for lower prices accelerate. To confirm this, futures first need to breach the 420 level – the support level has struggled to hold sustainably since December 2025. This presents a key threshold.
With moving average capping the upside, and the 200-day slowly approaching as the next resistance level, the skew remains on the downside. To suggest a decisive break lower, volumes need to pick up, a trend we have been seeing in recent days. Should the 420 level be breached, the next robust support stands at 411.50.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures gained ground on Friday, but resistance of the 10 DMA around 335 capped the upside, prompting prices to settle just below this level. Upside momentum appears to be growing, with %K/%D converging decisively above oversold territory, suggesting a growing bull trend.
However, with prices struggling above the 10 DMA on Friday and a longer upper wick forming, there is still a lack of momentum for a decisive break higher. In the meantime, we expect prices to retest this level today and break above it in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee strengthened on Friday, as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot. Prompting a breach of the robust resistance in the form of moving averages at 4010 and 4100, closing close to 4150. The stochastics are rising but are starting to indicate overbought conditions, with the MACD diff positive and diverging, suggesting further upside, although with diminishing conviction.
The next robust level on the upside now stands at 200 DMA at 4280, and a break above it could trigger gains towards 4338 and 4500, respectively. Alternatively, shorter-term moving averages are now acting as robust support levels, and should be key in deciding whether Friday’s upside was temporary.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures sold off on Friday, breaking new lows towards 4110 – a low not seen since January 2024. The stochastics remain oversold, with the MACD diff negative and diverging, suggesting further downside conviction in the near term. A break of the key support level 4000 would open another strong upside momentum. Should prices find support at this level, this could prompt a recovery back above the 10 DMA close to 4500.
The candle’s long body and growing lower wick suggest markets might be cautious around the psychologically significant 4000 level, limiting the downside at least in the meantime.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa sold off sharply on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a test of the critical 3000 level, prompting a close just above it. The stochastics are falling, and %K/%D weakens on the downside. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. The break below the current support could set the scene for lower prices towards the trend support at 2900.
On the upside, a resistance at the 10 DMA at 3540 has proven strong, and a break back above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. While the support level at 3000 proved resilient on Friday, prices have been struggling to hold above the moving averages, suggesting there is more downside appetite. We expect further weakness in the near term, with a likely volatility spike around the 3000 level.
