NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged marginally higher on Thursday, with prices closing at 14.31. Futures remain capped below the declining longer-term averages, with prices trading beneath the 40 DMA at 14.47 and the 100 DMA at 14.88, reinforcing the broader bearish structure. The stochastics are neutral, with %K/%D holding in mid-range and lacking clear directional conviction. The MACD diff remains negative, although it has flattened, suggesting downside momentum is stabilising rather than accelerating.
To confirm a near-term recovery, futures need to close above the 10 DMA at 14.35, which could allow a retest of resistance at 14.88, aligned with the 100 DMA. Conversely, failure to hold current levels would expose support at 14.28, with a break lower reopening downside risk towards 14.00. While selling pressure has eased, the broader trend remains fragile.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged marginally higher on Thursday, with prices settling at 416.80, but the broader technical structure remains fragile. Futures continue to trade below the 10, 40 and 100 DMA, which are clustered overhead at 420.73, 422.23 and 429.96, respectively, reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias.
The stochastics are rising modestly but remain subdued, suggesting limited upside momentum rather than a decisive reversal. The MACD is negative, with the diff still below zero, indicating that downside momentum remains dominant despite some near-term stabilisation.
To confirm a more constructive outlook, futures would need to reclaim the 10 DMA, followed by a sustained break above the 434.30 resistance, which could open the door towards 464.00. On the downside, a failure to hold above the 411.60 support would expose the recent low at 403.40, keeping pressure firmly on the downside. For now, the technicals point to rangebound-to-weaker momentum, with rallies likely to be capped below the short-term averages.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures softened on Thursday, closing at 328.80, as prices continued to struggle below key moving-average resistance. Futures remain firmly beneath the 10 DMA at 335.13, the 40 DMA at 346.87, and the 100 DMA at 364.09, highlighting the persistence of the bearish trend. The stochastics are subdued, with %K/%D hovering in the lower half of the range, suggesting limited upside momentum. The MACD diff remains negative, though it is no longer sharply diverging, pointing to waning selling pressure.
To stabilise the near-term outlook, futures need to reclaim the 10 DMA, which could trigger a move back towards 346.00. On the downside, a failure to hold above 328.00 would increase the risk of a renewed test of support at 314.75. Until prices move back above the short-term averages, rallies are likely to remain corrective.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures continued to weaken on Thursday, with prices closing lower at 2952, extending the broader downtrend. Futures remain decisively below the 10 and 40 DMA, currently at 3226 and 3959, while the 200 DMA at 5082 continues to slope lower, underlining the entrenched bearish structure.
The stochastics remain deeply oversold, with %K/%D flatlining at low levels, suggesting that while downside momentum persists, selling pressure may be becoming stretched. However, the MACD remains firmly negative, with the diff still below zero, confirming that bearish momentum has yet to fully dissipate.
To confirm further downside, futures would need to take out the recent low at 2870, which would reinforce the broader bearish trend. On the upside, any recovery attempt would first need to reclaim 3026, followed by a break above 3236, though upside potential appears limited while prices remain capped below the falling DMAs. Overall, the technicals continue to point to further downside risk, despite near-term oversold conditions.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged higher on Thursday, closing at 4238, but the broader structure remains under pressure. Prices continue to trade well below the 10 DMA at 4556, the 40 DMA at 5542, and the 200 DMA at 7254, reinforcing the dominant bearish trend. The stochastics are deeply oversold, with %K/%D near the lower boundary, suggesting scope for short-term consolidation. However, the MACD diff remains negative and diverging, signalling that downside momentum is still firmly in place.
To confirm a meaningful recovery, futures need to reclaim 4296, followed by a move towards 4698, where stronger resistance is layered. On the downside, a failure to hold above 4200 would expose the recent low at 4115, with a break below that level opening further downside risk. While oversold conditions may slow the decline, the technical backdrop remains decisively bearish.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures edged higher on Thursday, with prices closing at 4096, consolidating recent gains. Futures are now trading just above the 10 and 40 DMA, at 4076 and 3989, respectively, while the 100 DMA at 4272 remains a key overhead resistance.
The stochastics are rising and remain in positive territory, suggesting improving near-term momentum. The MACD is positive, with the diff holding above zero, signalling that buying pressure is gradually rebuilding following the earlier corrective phase.
To confirm a more constructive upside outlook, futures would need to break and hold above 4338, which could then open a test of 4664. On the downside, a failure to hold above the 40 DMA would shift focus back towards 3941, with a break below this level undermining the improving technical picture. For now, the price action suggests tentative stabilisation, with scope for further upside provided support continues to hold.
