NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged lower on Thursday, with prices closing at 13.84, extending the broader downtrend. Futures remain firmly below the 10, 40 and 100 DMAs, reinforcing the bearish structure, while the market continues to struggle to sustain rebounds above former support levels.
Stochastics remain subdued, with %K/%D flat to marginally lower and holding in the lower half of the range, suggesting limited upside momentum. The MACD remains negative, with the diff slightly below zero and flattening, indicating that downside momentum persists but is no longer accelerating sharply.
On the downside, a sustained break below 13.84 would expose further weakness towards the 13.50–13.40 area. On the upside, futures need to reclaim 14.28, followed by a close above the 40 DMA near 14.41, to signal a more meaningful stabilisation. Until these levels are recovered, rallies are likely to be sold into, with the near-term bias remaining cautiously bearish.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
White sugar remains heavy, with the latest close at 413.10 keeping price below the 10 DMA (415.76) and leaving the broader structure capped by the 40 DMA (421.18) and 100 DMA (427.45).
Momentum stays on the back foot with MACD still negative (-2.198), although the relatively small negative histogram (diff -0.476) hints that downside pressure is not accelerating. Stochastics are middling (%K 41.20, %D 36.85), suggesting the market is trying to base rather than extend the sell-off aggressively.
A sustained recovery would need to reclaim the short-term averages, while failure to hold the recent floor keeps risk tilted towards another probe of the late-October low area (403.40).
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures closed lower on Thursday at 296.50, decisively breaking below the key 314.75 support level and reinforcing the broader bearish trend. Prices are now well below the 10, 40 and 100 DMAs, highlighting persistent selling pressure and a lack of technical support in the near term.
Stochastics are deeply oversold, with %K/%D remaining depressed and yet to show a convincing turn higher, signalling that while prices are stretched, downside risks remain. The MACD is negative and diverging, confirming strong bearish momentum and validating the recent breakdown.
On the downside, a failure to stabilise above 296 could open the door towards the 290 level. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim 314.75, followed by a move back above the 10 DMA near 321, to ease immediate downside pressure. For now, the technical structure points to continued vulnerability, despite oversold conditions.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Robusta is back on the defensive, closing at 3749, with price well below the 10 DMA (3985) and 40 DMA (3944), and still facing a much higher 100 DMA (4236) as the broader trend cap.
MACD is firmly negative (-51.50) and remains below its signal (diff -36.88), consistent with a market that is still trending lower rather than merely consolidating. Stochastics are low (%K 17.88, %D 31.54), signalling oversold conditions and the potential for a short-term stabilisation, but confirmation would require a rebound back through the nearby DMAs. Until then, rallies are vulnerable to being sold into, with the latest breakdown keeping downside risk in focus.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures rebounded modestly on Thursday, closing at 4294, after briefly testing the 3988 low earlier in the week. Despite the bounce, futures remain below the falling trendline and the 40 DMA, keeping the broader outlook skewed to the downside.
Stochastics are rising from oversold territory, with %K/%D turning higher, suggesting some near-term stabilisation. However, the MACD remains negative, with the diff still below zero, indicating that underlying bearish momentum has not yet fully dissipated.
To confirm a more constructive near-term outlook, futures need to break back above 4336, followed by a close above the 10 DMA near 4292, which would allow a test of 4530. On the downside, a renewed failure below 3988 would reinforce the broader bearish trend. For now, the market appears to be attempting to base, but confirmation remains lacking.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
London cocoa remains under sustained pressure, with futures settling at 3065 after briefly testing the recent low at 2769. Price continues to trade well below the 10 DMA at 3019 and the 40 DMA at 3832, while the 200 DMA at 5005 highlights how entrenched the broader downtrend remains. The downward-sloping trendline from the 2024 highs is still firmly intact, and recent rebounds have failed to generate any meaningful follow-through.
Momentum indicators remain heavy. The MACD is deeply negative at -287.4, although the histogram has edged marginally positive, suggesting downside momentum is slowing rather than reversing. Stochastics are rising from oversold, with %K at 44.4 and %D at 31.3, pointing to some near-term stabilisation after the sharp sell-off, but not yet signalling a trend change.
For any recovery to gain traction, futures need to reclaim the 3000–3050 area on a closing basis and then challenge resistance at 4296. A move beyond this zone would be required to ease the immediate bearish structure. On the downside, a failure to hold above 3000 keeps the focus on the recent low at 2769. Overall, while selling pressure has moderated, the technical structure remains firmly bearish, with rebounds still corrective in nature.
