NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures eased slightly on Friday, settling at 15.96, but the broader structure remains constructive following the recent breakout. Price continues to hold above the 10 DMA (15.47), 40 DMA (14.33), and 100 DMA (14.36), confirming a sustained shift from the prior downtrend into a recovery phase. The recent rally has been sharp, though Friday’s small red candle suggests some initial loss of upside momentum after an extended run higher.
Momentum indicators remain supportive but stretched. The MACD diff is still positive and marginally widening, indicating that underlying momentum remains constructive, albeit no longer accelerating as strongly. Stochastics show %K above 90 and flattening near extreme overbought levels, pointing to exhaustion risk in the very short term, with scope for consolidation.
Technically, the 14.30–14.35 area (40/100 DMA cluster) remains key support, defining the breakout base. Holding above this region keeps the bullish structure intact. Immediate resistance sits around 16.00–16.20, where price is currently hesitating. A clean break above this zone would open the way towards 16.80–17.20. However, given overbought conditions, a pullback towards the 10 DMA (15.40–15.50) would be a natural reset without damaging the broader recovery. A move back below 14.30 would negate the breakout and shift the structure back to neutral.
Overall, NY sugar remains in a near-term bullish phase, but momentum is stretched and increasingly vulnerable to consolidation.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures closed at 460.80, consolidating just below recent highs after a strong breakout sequence. Price is now well above the 10 DMA (447.00), 40 DMA (418.90), and 100 DMA (419.82), confirming a decisive trend shift higher. The breakout above 434 has held firmly, and price action continues to build above this former resistance.
Momentum remains strong but is showing early signs of peaking. The MACD diff is positive and still diverging, though at a slower pace, suggesting that upside momentum is still intact but no longer accelerating sharply. Stochastics remain deep in overbought territory above 90, with %K flattening, indicating limited immediate upside without consolidation.
From a structural perspective, 434 now acts as strong support, marking the breakout level. As long as price holds above this area, the trend remains firmly bullish. The next upside target lies in the 470–500 region, though the pace of gains suggests a pause or shallow pullback towards 445–450 (10 DMA area) is increasingly likely before continuation. A move back below 434 would weaken the bullish structure and signal a return to range trading.
In summary, Ldn sugar remains strongly bid with a confirmed breakout, but like NY sugar, the market is technically overextended, with consolidation or a corrective pullback likely needed before further upside extension.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY arabica settled at 295.90, slipping modestly on Friday but continuing to hold above the recent recovery base. Price has now reclaimed the 10 DMA (300.15 area marginally above), and is testing the 40 DMA (293.34), while remaining well below the 100 DMA (332.43), keeping the broader structure corrective despite near-term stabilisation.
The recent bounce from the February lows remains intact, with price forming a sequence of higher lows, but Friday’s small red candle near the 10 DMA suggests initial hesitation into resistance. The 40 DMA is now acting as near-term pivot support, with price attempting to build above it.
Momentum signals are constructive but not yet decisive. The MACD diff has turned positive and is gradually widening, indicating improving upside momentum following the prior downtrend. However, the slope remains shallow, reflecting a recovery rather than a strong impulsive move. Stochastics are rising towards the upper range (~70+), not yet extreme, suggesting room for further upside before overbought conditions emerge.
Technically, 314.75 remains the key resistance, marking the breakdown level and a critical barrier for any broader reversal. A break above this would confirm a more durable shift higher towards the 330–340 (100 DMA) zone. On the downside, the 290–293 region (40 DMA / recent consolidation) is now important support. A move back below this would expose a retest of the 280–285 area, undermining the recovery structure.
Overall, NY coffee is stabilising with a cautiously constructive near-term bias, but remains within a broader corrective structure unless resistance at 314.75 is decisively broken.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn robusta closed at 3516, continuing to trade in a subdued and choppy range following its earlier downtrend. Price remains below the 10 DMA (3588), 40 DMA (3667), and 100 DMA (3954), confirming that the broader trend remains firmly bearish.
The recent price action shows rangebound consolidation between roughly 3166 and 3600, with repeated failures near the 40 DMA. Friday’s candle was mildly negative, reinforcing the lack of upside conviction and continued selling interest into rallies.
Momentum indicators remain weak. The MACD diff is marginally positive but flat, indicating a lack of directional momentum and reflecting sideways conditions rather than a sustained recovery. Stochastics are hovering around mid-range (~50), offering no strong directional signal and reinforcing the rangebound nature of the market.
From a structural perspective, 3660–3700 (40 DMA zone) is the key resistance area, with repeated rejections confirming its importance. A break above this would be needed to signal a shift towards recovery, opening the way towards 3950 (100 DMA). On the downside, 3166 remains key support, and a break below this level would resume the broader downtrend towards the 3000 area.
In summary, Ldn coffee remains neutral-to-bearish, with consolidation dominating in the near term. Unlike NY coffee, it has not yet established a clear recovery structure, and upside remains conditional on a break above the 40 DMA.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa settled at 3228, broadly unchanged on Friday, with price continuing to consolidate just above recent lows after the sharp Q1 decline. The market remains below the 10 DMA (3309), 40 DMA (3459), and well below the 200 DMA (6113), confirming that the broader trend remains decisively bearish, despite the recent stabilisation.
Price action over the past weeks shows basing behaviour above the 2846 low, with a sequence of small-bodied candles and reduced downside momentum. However, repeated failures to reclaim the 10 DMA highlight ongoing selling pressure into rallies, keeping the structure corrective.
Momentum signals reflect this tentative stabilisation. The MACD diff has turned positive and is gradually widening, indicating that downside momentum is fading and a short-term recovery is attempting to build. However, the MACD remains in negative territory overall, reinforcing that this is a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend. Stochastics have rolled lower from mid-to-high levels (~30–40 area now), suggesting loss of upward momentum and risk of renewed weakness.
Technically, 3300–3350 (10 DMA zone) is immediate resistance, followed by the 3450–3500 area (40 DMA). A break above the latter would be required to signal a more meaningful recovery towards 4000+. On the downside, 3000 and the 2846 low remain key support, with a break below exposing a continuation of the primary downtrend.
Overall, NY cocoa remains in a bearish structure, with near-term consolidation but no confirmed reversal. Upside remains corrective unless price can reclaim the 40 DMA.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa closed at 2402, continuing to trade in a narrow consolidation range just above the 2050 low, following an extended downtrend. Price remains below the 10 DMA (2433), 40 DMA (2471), and far below the 200 DMA (4249), confirming that the broader trend remains firmly bearish.
Recent price action shows sideways consolidation between roughly 2050 and 2500, with Friday’s small candle reflecting indecision and lack of directional conviction. The inability to sustain moves above the 10 DMA highlights persistent overhead pressure.
Momentum indicators suggest a fragile stabilisation. The MACD diff is positive and slightly widening, indicating that downside momentum has eased. However, similar to NY cocoa, the MACD remains negative overall, pointing to a corrective phase rather than a reversal. Stochastics have rolled over from higher levels and are now drifting lower (~40 area), suggesting waning recovery momentum.
From a structural perspective, 2450–2500 (10/40 DMA zone) is key resistance, with repeated rejections keeping the market capped. A break above this area would open the way towards 2800–3000, though this would still be within a broader bearish context. On the downside, 2050 remains critical support, with a break below likely to trigger a renewed leg lower.
In summary, Ldn cocoa remains neutral-to-bearish, consolidating after a sharp decline but lacking confirmation of a sustained recovery. The broader trend remains down, with upside limited unless the market can reclaim and hold above the 40 DMA.
