NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar settled at 15.68, pulling back marginally after a sharp rally but holding firmly above the key breakout zone.
Price action shows a decisive break above the 14.30 resistance, with a strong sequence of green candles driving the move higher before a small corrective red candle into the close. Importantly, the market continues to trade above both the 10 DMA (15.71) and the rising 40 DMA (14.43), confirming that the short-term structure has shifted higher after a prolonged downtrend.
Momentum remains supportive but is showing early signs of consolidation. The MACD diff is positive and continues to widen, reflecting sustained upside momentum, although the pace of expansion is beginning to stabilise. Stochastics are elevated in the upper range (~78–85) and starting to flatten, indicating the market is approaching overbought conditions and may pause or consolidate in the near term.
From a levels perspective, 14.30 now acts as key support, marking the breakout point and aligning closely with the 40 DMA. A sustained hold above this level keeps the upside structure intact, opening a move towards 16.00 and above, where recent highs are being tested. A break back below 14.30 would signal a loss of momentum and risk a return to the broader range.
Overall, NY sugar has transitioned into a near-term bullish phase, though the rally appears stretched in the short term, suggesting potential consolidation before further upside.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar (May) closed at 452.00, easing slightly after a strong upside breakout but maintaining a constructive technical structure.
Price has cleared the 434 resistance level decisively, with a strong rally extending well above both the 10 DMA (453.29) and 40 DMA (420.77). The recent candle shows a modest pullback, but the broader structure remains firmly upward, with higher highs and higher lows developing from the February base.
Momentum indicators remain constructive. The MACD diff is positive and widening, confirming strengthening upside momentum, while stochastics are elevated (~77–84) and beginning to flatten, suggesting the market is entering overbought territory and may see near-term consolidation.
Technically, 434 now becomes key support, marking the breakout level and reinforcing the shift in trend. Holding above this area keeps the focus on further upside towards 460–480, while a move back below would indicate a loss of immediate momentum and a return towards the 40 DMA region.
Ldn sugar has broken out of its prior range and is now in a short-term uptrend, though momentum is becoming stretched, pointing to the likelihood of consolidation before the next directional move.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY arabica coffee settled at 290.80, extending the recent pullback and slipping back below both the 10 DMA (299.13) and marginally below the 40 DMA (292.02), signalling that the latest recovery phase has stalled.
Price action shows a failure to sustain gains above the 300 area, with recent candles turning lower after a brief corrective rally from the February lows. The rejection near the 40 DMA reinforces that overhead resistance remains firm, and the broader sequence of lower highs is still intact.
Momentum is mixed but leaning weaker. The MACD diff has flattened and is only marginally positive, suggesting that upside momentum has faded and risks of renewed downside pressure are building. Stochastics have rolled over from mid-range (~35–55), pointing to loss of upward traction rather than an oversold rebound setup.
Technically, 292–300 (40/10 DMA zone) is now immediate resistance. A sustained move back above this area is required to re-establish a recovery towards 314.75, and potentially 330+ (100 DMA). On the downside, failure to hold current levels exposes a retest of 280, followed by the February base near 270, where stronger support is expected.
Overall, NY coffee remains in a broader downtrend, with the recent bounce losing momentum. Near-term risks are skewed to the downside unless price can decisively reclaim the 40 DMA.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn robusta coffee closed at 3405, continuing to weaken and trading below the 10 DMA (3563) and 40 DMA (3644), with the broader structure still firmly bearish.
Recent price action shows a resumption of downside pressure following a period of consolidation, with fresh red candles breaking the recent range and pushing the market back towards key support. The inability to hold above the 10 DMA highlights persistent selling pressure on rallies.
Momentum indicators confirm this deterioration. The MACD diff remains negative and has started to widen again, signalling that downside momentum is reasserting itself after a brief stabilisation phase. Stochastics are falling back towards the lower range (~28), approaching oversold territory but not yet showing a clear reversal signal.
From a structural perspective, 3560–3650 (10/40 DMA zone) now acts as strong resistance. While below this region, rallies are likely to remain corrective. Immediate support lies at 3166, with a break exposing a move towards 3000 and below, where the next major support cluster emerges.
Ldn coffee remains under clear bearish pressure, with momentum turning lower again and no confirmed base in place. Any recovery attempts are likely to struggle below the 40 DMA, keeping the near-term bias to the downside.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa extended its recovery into month-end, settling at 3367, with price now reclaiming the 10 DMA (3283) and pushing into the 40 DMA (3411). While the broader trend remains bearish, the recent price action suggests a more constructive corrective phase is developing following the February low at 2846.
The recovery has been characterised by higher lows and firmer closes, with recent green candles indicating improving buying interest. Price is now testing the 40 DMA from below, a key near-term inflection point after months of sustained weakness.
Momentum signals have strengthened. The MACD diff continues to widen positively, reflecting a clear shift in momentum away from the prior downtrend. Importantly, this is one of the first sustained positive momentum phases since the sell-off began. Stochastics are holding in mid-range (~40–50) after turning higher, suggesting room for further upside without immediate overbought pressure.
Technically, 3410–3450 (40 DMA zone) is the immediate resistance. A confirmed break above this would open a move towards 3800–4000, marking a more meaningful recovery phase. On the downside, 3280 (10 DMA) now acts as first support, followed by 3000, with the 2846 low remaining the key structural floor.
Overall, NY cocoa is transitioning from stabilisation into a corrective recovery, with momentum improving, though the broader bearish structure remains intact unless price can sustain gains above the 40 DMA.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa closed at 2512, extending its rebound and now trading above both the 10 DMA (2425) and 40 DMA (2441). This marks a notable shift, as price has broken above key short-term resistance levels for the first time since the downtrend accelerated, suggesting a stronger recovery relative to NY cocoa.
Price action shows a clean rebound from the 2015 low, with consecutive higher lows and firmer closes. The break above the 40 DMA is technically significant, indicating that downside pressure is easing and a corrective uptrend is developing.
Momentum confirms this shift. The MACD diff is positive and steadily widening, signalling strengthening upside momentum. Stochastics are rising through mid-range (~55) without being overbought, indicating further room for recovery.
From a structural perspective, 2440–2450 (10/40 DMA zone) now turns into support. Holding above this region reinforces the developing recovery. The next resistance lies around 2800–3000, followed by stronger resistance near 3400+. On the downside, a move back below 2440 would weaken the recovery and risk a return towards 2200–2050.
Ldn cocoa is showing clearer signs of a short-term trend reversal compared to NY cocoa, with a confirmed break above key DMAs and improving momentum. While the broader trend remains bearish, near-term risks are skewed to the upside as long as support at the 40 DMA holds.
