NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar settled at 14.79, correcting sharply lower after failing to sustain the recent breakout above 16.00.
Price action shows a rejection from recent highs followed by a decisive move back below the 10 DMA (15.58), with the latest candle extending lower towards the 14.30 support zone. While the contract is still holding just above both the 40 DMA (14.55) and the key horizontal support at 14.30, the failure to maintain upside momentum suggests the breakout has temporarily stalled.
Momentum has turned weaker. The MACD diff has rolled over and moved slightly negative, indicating that upside momentum has faded and a short-term correction is underway. Stochastics have fallen sharply from overbought territory (~80+) down towards the mid-20s, reflecting a clear loss of bullish momentum rather than a stabilised base.
Technically, 14.30 is now the key level to watch, marking both prior resistance and current support. A sustained hold above this region would keep the broader recovery structure intact and allow for consolidation before another upside attempt. However, a clear break below 14.30 would expose a move towards 13.34, where stronger support lies.
On the upside, the market would need to reclaim the 10 DMA and move back above 15.50–16.00 to re-establish bullish momentum.
Overall, NY sugar has shifted into a near-term corrective phase within a still constructive structure, with price now testing critical support following an overextended rally.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar closed at 431.50, extending the pullback and slipping back below key short-term support after failing to hold the breakout.
Price action shows a rejection above 460 followed by a sharp reversal, with the contract now trading below the 10 DMA (451.04) and back towards the 434 breakout level, which is currently being tested. The move lower signals that the recent upside breakout has lost momentum, and the market is now reassessing direction.
Momentum indicators confirm the shift. The MACD diff has turned lower and is now negative, highlighting a clear deterioration in upside momentum. Stochastics have fallen from overbought levels towards the low-30s, indicating a strong unwind of the prior rally and no immediate sign of stabilisation yet.
From a technical standpoint, 434 is the key pivot. A sustained hold around this level could allow the market to stabilise and maintain a broader base above the February lows. However, a decisive break below 434 would signal a deeper correction towards the 40 DMA (422.69) and potentially 400–392 support.
On the upside, resistance is now seen at 451 (10 DMA) followed by the recent highs near 460, which would need to be reclaimed to restore bullish momentum.
Ldn sugar has entered a corrective phase following a failed breakout, with momentum turning lower and price testing key support. The near-term bias remains cautious unless the market can stabilise above 434.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY arabica coffee (May) settled at 281.30, extending the recent pullback and confirming a rejection from the 300 area.
Price action shows a failure to hold above the 10 DMA (294.97) and 40 DMA (291.26), with the latest candle pushing lower and reinforcing the broader pattern of lower highs. The inability to sustain gains above the moving average cluster signals that the recent recovery phase has clearly lost momentum. Momentum indicators have turned decisively weaker. The MACD diff is negative and widening slightly, reflecting building downside pressure, while stochastics have fallen sharply into the lower range (~18–30), approaching oversold territory but not yet showing a clear stabilisation signal.
From a structural perspective, 291–300 (40/10 DMA zone) now acts as firm resistance. While below this area, rallies are likely to remain corrective. Immediate support lies around 280, and a sustained break lower would expose the February base near 270, where stronger buying interest may emerge.
On the upside, a recovery would require a decisive move back above the 40 DMA, which would signal stabilisation and open a move back towards 314.75.
NY coffee remains under clear downside pressure, with the recent bounce fully unwound and the market drifting back towards key support.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn robusta coffee closed at 3231, continuing to weaken and moving closer to key support levels.
Price action shows a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with the contract trading below the 10 DMA (3472) and 40 DMA (3616) and continuing to respect the broader downtrend structure. The latest move lower brings the market back towards the 3166 support zone, which is now being tested.
Momentum remains firmly negative. The MACD diff is deeply negative and broadly flat, indicating persistent downside pressure without meaningful recovery. Stochastics are in the lower range (~14–25), suggesting the market is approaching oversold conditions, though not yet showing a convincing turn higher.
Technically, 3166 is the key near-term support. A break below this level would open a move towards 3000 and below, extending the broader bearish trend. On the upside, resistance is layered at 3470 (10 DMA) and 3615 (40 DMA), and the market would need to reclaim this zone to signal any meaningful stabilisation.
Ldn coffee remains in a well-defined downtrend, with price pressing into support and momentum still negative. While conditions are becoming oversold, there is no confirmed reversal signal, leaving risks skewed to the downside.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa settled at 3097, extending the recent weakness and continuing to trade within a well-defined broader downtrend.
Price action shows the market failing to hold the recent recovery above the 10 DMA (3265) and slipping back lower, with candles drifting towards the lower end of the recent range. The contract remains below both the 10 DMA and 40 DMA (3312), while the longer-term structure of lower highs beneath the descending trendline remains intact.
Momentum is weak but stabilising. The MACD diff has turned modestly positive, suggesting some loss of downside momentum, though the overall level remains deeply negative, indicating the broader bearish trend is still dominant. Stochastics are mid-range (~40–50) and flattening, pointing to rangebound behaviour rather than a clear directional signal.
Technically, 3147 (recent resistance) and the 10/40 DMA zone (3265–3310) form a strong overhead resistance cluster. A sustained move above this region would be required to signal any meaningful recovery towards 3500+. On the downside, 3000 remains the immediate support, followed by the February low near 2846, which marks a key structural floor.
NY cocoa remains in a broader downtrend but is currently consolidating above support, with momentum suggesting a pause rather than a reversal.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa closed at 2337, continuing to struggle near the lower end of its range and holding just above key support.
Price action reflects a persistent downtrend, with the contract trading below the 10 DMA (2416) and 40 DMA (2396) and failing to build on the recent bounce from the February lows. The latest candles show renewed pressure after a shallow recovery, keeping the structure firmly bearish.
Momentum remains negative but is attempting to stabilise. The MACD diff has turned slightly positive, indicating a slowdown in selling pressure, although the broader MACD structure remains deeply negative. Stochastics are hovering around mid-range (~45–55), suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction and a continuation of consolidation near lows.
From a levels perspective, 2415–2400 (10/40 DMA zone) is immediate resistance and must be reclaimed to signal any recovery. Below, 2050 remains the key structural support, marking the February low. A break of this level would open a further leg lower, while holding above it maintains the possibility of base formation.
Ldn cocoa remains under bearish pressure with signs of consolidation, as momentum stabilises but price action continues to respect the broader downtrend.
