NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar (May) settled at 13.80, posting a modest rebound on the session but remaining within a weakened short-term structure following the recent sell-off.
Price action shows a clear rejection from the mid-March highs near 16.00, with the subsequent decline breaking below both the 10 DMA at 14.31 and the 40 DMA at 14.61. The latest green candle signals a near-term stabilisation attempt just above the 13.34 support level, but price continues to trade below the 14.30 resistance zone, which now caps the upside. The broader sequence of lower highs remains intact, keeping the overall bias under pressure.
Momentum remains soft. The MACD diff is negative and continues to edge lower, indicating that downside pressure persists, although the pace of decline is no longer accelerating. Stochastics are deeply oversold near 6, suggesting the market is stretched on the downside and may continue to stabilise or consolidate near current levels.
Technically, holding above 13.34 is key to maintaining the current base. A sustained break below this level would reopen the broader bearish trend. On the upside, a recovery back above 14.30, and then the 10 and 40 DMA cluster, is required to signal a more meaningful stabilisation and shift the near-term outlook towards neutral.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar (May) closed at 416.80, edging higher on the session after the recent decline, although price remains below key short-term resistance.
Price action reflects a sharp rejection from the rally towards 460, followed by a move back below the 10 DMA at 423.58 and the 40 DMA at 425.04. The latest session shows a small recovery, but the contract continues to trade beneath both averages and below the 434.30 resistance level, maintaining a corrective-to-bearish structure. The market is holding above the 392.65 support area, which continues to define the lower bound of the recent range.
Momentum indicators confirm a weak but stabilising tone. The MACD diff is negative and flattening, suggesting that downside momentum is easing but not yet reversing. Stochastics have dropped into oversold territory near 10 and are starting to turn, indicating scope for near-term consolidation or a modest rebound.
From a technical perspective, the inability to reclaim the 10 and 40 DMA keeps the near-term outlook cautious. A move back above 423–425 would be needed to stabilise the structure, with a further break above 434.30 required to shift the bias more constructively. On the downside, a break below 392.65 would signal a continuation of the broader bearish trend.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee (May) settled at 290.40, slipping back below key short-term averages and signalling a loss of the recent stabilisation momentum.
Price action shows the contract failing to hold above the 10 DMA at 292.04 and the 40 DMA at 291.66, with the latest candle closing back beneath this cluster. The recovery attempt seen through late March and early April has stalled below the key 314.75 resistance, and the inability to sustain gains above the moving averages weakens the developing base. The broader structure remains neutral-to-bearish, with price still well below the declining 100 DMA near 320.
Momentum indicators are turning softer. The MACD diff remains slightly positive but is flattening and beginning to roll over, suggesting fading upside momentum. Stochastics are in the upper-mid range near 60 but have started to turn lower, indicating that the recent recovery phase is losing traction.
Technically, the loss of the 10 and 40 DMA cluster shifts the near-term bias back towards consolidation or mild downside. A move back above 292–295 is needed to stabilise the structure and reopen a test of 314.75. On the downside, a break below the 285–280 region would undermine the base formation and expose deeper support.
Lnd 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee (May) closed at 3347, showing a modest rebound from recent lows but remaining firmly within a broader downtrend.
Price action has lifted slightly from the 3166 support level, with the latest sessions pushing back above the 10 DMA at 3309. However, the contract continues to trade below the 40 DMA at 3540, and the sequence of lower highs remains intact. The broader bearish structure is therefore unchanged, with rallies continuing to look corrective in nature.
Momentum is stabilising but not yet constructive. The MACD diff remains negative, though flattening, indicating that downside momentum is easing. Stochastics have moved higher into the low-50s, reflecting a recovery from near-oversold conditions but not yet signalling strong upside momentum.
From a technical perspective, holding above the 10 DMA provides some near-term support, but the key test remains the 40 DMA at 3540. Only a recovery through this level would begin to challenge the bearish structure. On the downside, 3166 continues to act as primary support, and a break below this level would resume the broader decline.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa (May) settled at 3455, extending its recovery phase from the February lows while holding above key short-term moving averages.
Price action shows a clear break above both the 10 DMA at 3358 and the 40 DMA at 3256, confirming an improving near-term structure. The market has built a series of higher lows since the 2846 base, indicating a shift away from the prior downtrend. However, the broader structure remains corrective within a longer-term bearish trend, with price still well below the 200 DMA near 5752 and major resistance at 4344.
Momentum is strengthening. The MACD diff is firmly positive and continuing to widen, signalling building upside momentum, while stochastics are holding in the upper range near 70, suggesting sustained buying interest though approaching overbought territory.
Technically, holding above the 40 DMA keeps the recovery intact and suggests scope for a continued move towards 3800 and potentially 4344. A break above 4344 would mark a more meaningful trend reversal. On the downside, a move back below 3250 would weaken the recovery structure and signal a return to consolidation.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa (May) closed at 2531, maintaining its rebound from the February lows and continuing to build a short-term recovery structure.
Price action has pushed above the 10 DMA at 2475 and is holding comfortably above the 40 DMA at 2364, confirming improving near-term momentum. The formation of higher lows since the 2015 bottom reinforces the shift into a corrective uptrend. However, similar to NY cocoa, the broader trend remains bearish, with price still significantly below the 200 DMA near 4045 and major resistance at 4489.
Momentum indicators support the recovery. The MACD diff is positive and widening, indicating strengthening upside momentum, while stochastics are elevated near the upper range around 65–70, suggesting firm near-term strength but approaching overbought conditions.
From a technical perspective, the ability to hold above the 40 DMA keeps the recovery bias intact and opens the way for a move towards 2800 and potentially higher resistance levels. A break above this zone would strengthen the corrective trend. On the downside, a move back below 2360 would signal a loss of momentum and risk a return towards the lows.
